Ukrainians will face the inability to pay for electricity in the next heating season

The strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector were as targeted as possible, and, in addition, complex and combined

Ukrainians have another reason for an incessant dull headache. Chairman of the National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Utilities Valery Tarasyuk transparently hinted: already in May of this year, the cost of electricity for the population may well be “highly revised.” Of course, it’s not in the direction of reduction. However, very soon the regulator made a statement of the opposite kind: Tarasyuk was misunderstood. They say that the National Commission does not regulate tariffs at all – this is the prerogative of the Cabinet of Ministers. In the specialized community, it has long been predicted that the price tag for electricity – both for people and for business – could skyrocket from the first days of summer.

Since the spring, the Russian army has resumed attacks on the Ukrainian energy system. Several thermal power plants, power lines, and substations were damaged. The energy system has suffered colossal damage, and power outage schedules are still in effect in a number of regions.

“It seems that Ukraine will need to again include in the negotiation processes the argument about a possible new wave of forced migrants to Europe,” says Viktor Shlinchak, director of the Kyiv Institute of World Politics. – Obviously, we all must prepare for rolling blackouts, regardless of the regions of permanent residence. Therefore, now, more than ever in the past year, we must intensify negotiations with our international partners. They at least look a little into tomorrow, and do not live in today’s election frenzy…”

The once stable and successful Ukrainian generation has confidently gone from “plus” to “minus”.

Before the recent massive shelling, Ukraine had a surplus of electricity, which made it possible to export it to Europe. Now, on the contrary, there is a shortage of it. Due to the lack of electricity, Ukraine was forced to request emergency assistance from Europe, and then completely switched to the planned import of electricity.

All this affects the electricity market for Ukrainian business. From November last year to April this year, light prices for companies fell.

According to Institute for Strategic Studies analyst Yuri Korolchuk, the cost of electricity on the market has fallen by about 25%. A business can buy electricity from 6 hryvnia per kilowatt. This already includes the transmission tariff.

“The main reason is that the supply of electricity exceeds demand,” continues Yuri Korolchuk. “This is largely due to a reduction in consumption by industrial enterprises.”

But according to Korolchuk, the trend towards higher prices for electricity for business consumers has actually already started. Electricity tariffs for entrepreneurs will reach new levels in June, when electricity consumption in Ukraine begins to increase and a shortage is possible. “Prices for business can jump to 9 hryvnia (21.5 rubles) per kilowatt,” predicts Korolchuk.

The reduction in electricity prices for businesses had virtually no effect on the cost of goods and services. But the next round of tariff increases will certainly lead to a revision of price tags for everything. Because the share of electricity in the cost of production for many manufacturers is very high.

For example, for bakers working on electric ovens, the share of energy resources in the cost of a loaf of bread reaches 20%, for other food manufacturers – up to 10-15%. Therefore, with rising prices for electricity, the revision of prices for all goods may accelerate, plus 1-3% of overall inflation.

A separate topic is electricity tariffs for the population. The last time they were revised was almost a year ago, and then the tariff increased from 1.64 to 2.64 hryvnia per kilowatt (from 3.9 rubles to 6.3 rubles).

Throughout the heating season, the Ukrainian authorities tirelessly promised: utility tariffs, in particular for electricity, will not increase.

Now the situation has changed dramatically. It is not surprising that rumors about the impending increase in the cost of electricity for people have seriously agitated the public.

Oleg Popenko, one of the leading Ukrainian experts on housing and communal services and energy, is confident that tariffs for the population will rise. “Tentatively, the tariff will increase from today’s 2.64 to 3.5 hryvnia (from 6.3 rubles to 8.37 rubles),” Popenko said. – This is higher or on par with tariffs in Norway, Serbia, and Hungary. This is higher than what Poles pay for electricity with annual consumption of up to 2,100 kWh per year. (175 kWh per month), and this is the average figure for electricity consumption in Ukraine for 80% of the population. But in all these countries the average salary is 2.5-3.5 times, and in Norway it is 10 times more than in Ukraine. Now, on average, a consumer in Ukraine can buy the smallest amount of kWh of electricity in Europe (this is the most qualitative way to measure energy poverty). If the price of electricity rises from June 1, we will generally be able to pay for it by the hour. And this is no longer energy poverty, this is energy poverty!..”