the number of women aged 30-39 will decrease by 33.8% by 2030 – Kommersant

The number of women aged 30 to 39 in Russia will decrease by 33.8% by 2030, from 12 million to 7.9 million, Olga Batalina, First Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Russia, said. According to her, women of this age account for 48% of births. She also noted that, in general, by 2030, the total number of women of reproductive age will decrease.

“We now have an age cohort of 30-39 years old at the peak of the population, and this age cohort traditionally gives us the birth of second and third children – 58% of second births and 68% of third births. And this age cohort, starting from the current moment, now they will pass the peak, and a slow decline will begin, it will go away by 2030, they will decrease by 4.2 million,” Olga Batalina said at the forum “Demography and Family Policy 2030: Reliance on traditional values.

At the same time, the number of women aged 20 to 29 will grow by 9.7% by 2030, from 7.2 million to 7.9 million. This age cohort accounts for 44% of births. Over the past ten years, the number of this group has decreased by almost 40% (4.6 million), amounting to 7.2 million women as of January 1, 2022. “At the same time, this trend, according to the forecast, has not stopped and will continue until 2026. And only after that there will be a slight increase in the number of this age cohort,” added Olga Batalina.

From January to September 2022, the birth rate in Russia decreased by 6.5%. At the same time, out of ten family unions, seven end in divorce. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov declaredthat “demography is where we have not yet succeeded.”

Institute of Demography. A. G. Vishnevsky HSE prepared 30 demographic forecast scenarios for Russia until 2100. However, 14 of these scenarios assume that the population will remain at the current level of approximately 146 million people or grow to 217 million people, while 16 scenarios predict a decrease, of which 11 fall below 120 million people. On July 1, the Ministry of Labor plans to approve regional programs to increase the birth rate.

More about this forecast – in the publication “Kommersant” “Demography split in two”.

Anastasia Larina