Russia’s warming threatens migration of mice carrying a deadly disease

Global warming in the south of Russia makes life unbearable for rodents. We are talking about a field mouse, which, as it turns out, has already pricked its ears to the northeast. Scientists from the Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences with colleagues from the University of Tennessee (USA) for the first time predicted changes in its range that could occur in the next 80 years. This is fraught with the spread of dangerous diseases and crop losses worth billions of dollars.

Now this species is widespread in the fields and even in the cities of the European part of Russia. However, by 2080, when on Earth, according to many climate models, the average temperature will rise by more than 2 degrees, the range of the field mouse will increase by 80% due to its movement to the northeast.

Why do mice dislike heat? – I ask Varos Petrosyan, head of the work, doctor of biological sciences, chief researcher of the A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

– If in summer the temperature rises to 30 or more degrees, female field mice stop giving birth, experiencing temperature stress. One hot summer, of course, does not play a role, but if the frequency of such hot seasons begins to increase, this immediately affects the number of rodents.

To understand how fast the mice will move to the northeast, we created seven mathematical algorithms, where we entered various temperature data. The model curves corresponded to the average temperature in 1980–2020.

We compared these data with real field data for the same period. This allowed us to choose the most realistic model. According to it, by 2060 the temperature at the Earth’s surface will increase by an average of 1.89°C, and by 2080 by 2.15°C.

According to our data, such an increase will lead to the fact that, due to severe drought, the field mouse from the south of the European part of Russia will almost completely move to Siberia and the Far East, forming a single area with its Far Eastern relative.

– How many are there now?

– There are two distribution areas of the field mouse, separated in the Baikal region by a 1000-kilometer zone. This division has existed for over 12,000 years.

Due to warming and the movement of mice from the south and west to the north and east, these areas will begin to merge. This threatens that the Far Eastern mouse population, which is the causative agent of a disease dangerous to humans – the Far Eastern serotype of the hemorrhagic fever virus with renal syndrome – will merge with the population living in the European part of Russia.

Help “MK” Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome is an acute viral disease that occurs with high fever. It is associated with severe back pain, increasing headache, repeated vomiting. From 6-7 days the temperature usually decreases, but the patient’s condition does not improve from this – signs of hemorrhagic syndrome increase, pressure rises, in severe cases coma occurs.

– That is, our common voles can also become carriers of a dangerous Far Eastern disease?

– Exactly. Unless, of course, they will spread freely. By the way, do not forget: they are also one of the main enemies of the crop. We are now calculating the economic damage that may be caused by the expansion of their range. According to preliminary estimates, it could be hundreds of billions of dollars.

– Are there ways to prevent this?

“We can take action now. According to the International Convention for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Species, their spread should be prevented using traps, pesticides, etc.

“What other species might be tempted to move to cooler places in the near future?”

“Many species, from microorganisms to vertebrates, can do this. But for now, we are recording “migrants” who have just begun to expand their area of ​​presence due to climate warming in Russia.

For example, there is an Asian tiger mosquito in the south, which has moved to us since 2007. He is able to carry a bunch of 15-20 diseases. Since the 2014 Olympics, boxwood moth settled in Sochi (it was accidentally brought from Italy in 2012 with imported seedlings of evergreen boxwood, which decorated the city). There is a corn beetle, California chitovka, potato and linden moth…

– And which of the mammals is in line for resettlement for the field mouse?

– There are three types of animals that come from North America – the muskrat, the American mink and the striped raccoon. They are among the first to move to the northeast over time, since with warming, suitable territories for settlement will appear.