Russia was hit by the second wave of respiratory diseases this winter: epidemiologists gave a disappointing forecast

“This usually happens after the winter holidays, when children begin to actively communicate again.”

The second wave of ARVI, influenza and covid in Russia is raising its head. In one and a half dozen regions of the country, schools and kindergartens were closed for quarantine; children switched to remote learning. Epidemiologists predict a further increase in incidence. In addition, a new supermutant SARS-CoV-2 has already appeared in the world, making its way from South Africa. MK learned from experts what to expect from a new outbreak.

Epidemiologists call the current increase in the incidence of respiratory viruses sharp: in just a week, the number of cases of ARVI and influenza increased by 3.8%, and COVID-19 by 7%. However, Rospotrebnadzor emphasizes that, despite everything, now the epidemiological situation does not cause concern and is under control.

In total, according to the results of the fifth week of the new year, about a million people fell ill with influenza and various acute respiratory viruses. The Russian average incidence rate was exceeded in 46 regions of the country. If we talk about overcoming epidemic thresholds, then they were exceeded by more than 20% in 32 cities of the country – these are the data of the Influenza Research Institute. All the signs of a second wave are evident, experts say.

As noted in Rospotrebnadzor, “in the 5th week of 2024, the activity of circulation of influenza viruses and the geography of distribution practically did not change. In the structure of positive findings, the share of influenza viruses decreased by 7.5% compared to the previous week. This indicator has declined for the third week in a row, suggesting that the influenza epidemic has begun to decline in activity.”

If we talk specifically about the flu, it is most often registered today among Muscovites (14.6%). As for COVID-19, the incidence rate in the last week was 26 thousand people. Epidemiologists say variants of the Omicron strain continue to dominate. Of the influenza viruses, the most common is virus A (H3N2).

And yet, 15 federal subjects have already taken restrictive measures by introducing quarantine in children’s educational institutions. This was done, for example, in Barnaul, Kirov, Kaluga, Kursk, Novosibirsk, Saratov regions, Bryansk, Veliky Novgorod, Vladivostok, Kaliningrad, Krasnodar, Murmansk, Tomsk, Ulan-Ude, etc.

“There is nothing unusual in the fact that ARVI and influenza have now begun to grow,” famous infectious disease specialist, Professor Nikolai Malyshey told MK. “This usually happens after the winter holidays, when children go back to school and begin to actively communicate and transmit viruses to each other. There are no dangerous features noted in the current second wave. The most commonly reported virus is rhinovirus; in addition, adenovirus and respiratory syncytial virus are also common. There is flu, but not much, and mostly it is influenza A. Covid is not a big concern now, because in most cases it is not severe. I wouldn’t expect any catastrophe, everything is as usual. Follow the usual preventive measures: avoid crowded places, wash your hands often, wear a mask, ventilate the premises, and if you have the first symptoms of a cold, stay home.”

Epidemiologists predict that the next increase in the incidence of respiratory viral infections should be expected in early spring. This usually happens when the seasons change: at this time, people’s immunity is especially weakened after winter, and a lack of vitamins also affects them.

At the same time, an increase in COVID-19 cases may begin, especially since an alarming new supermutant strain has already appeared. His homeland is South Africa. It is reported that a SARS-CoV-2 variant has been identified there, which has more than 100 new mutations. Little is known about it yet, but the most unpleasant thing is that it is actively spreading among people. It has already been found in eight samples from three provinces. According to laboratory diagnostics doctor Alexander Solovyov, many mutations are concentrated in important areas of the virus, which theoretically could affect the properties of the virus. “SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve,” the expert states.