Russia is dying out: projected birth rates have reached a historical low of the 90s

The Social Fund of Russia (SFR), which provides maternity capital and also pays monthly benefits for children’s needs, announced a forecast for the birth rate in Russia for the next three years. According to these data, published in the draft budget of the SFR, the country is facing a sharp demographic decline.

In the next document, the figures do not look the best: 1.245 million children will be born in 2023, 1.172 million in 2024, 1.153 million in 2025, 1.143 million in 2026. Moreover, the figures for 2024 are equal to the data for 1990, when The birth rate in the country has reached an absolute minimum. And then, in 2025 and 2026, the situation with childbearing, according to forecasts, will become even worse.

Experts believe that the demographic hole is a legacy of the birth rate collapse in the 90s. A broken country, economic instability, unemployment and crime acted as deterrents to childbearing throughout the decade. As a result, today the country lacks women under 30, that is, the most reproductive category.

The current social situation has also influenced the decline in demographic indicators. Representatives of the middle class are postponing childbearing until a later period, trying first to wait for the domestic and international situation to stabilize.

Demographers also voiced another alarming fact. Currently, the fertility rate is extremely low: 1.42 children per woman of childbearing age. Although it is higher than the “absolute bottom” indicator reached by the end of the 90s, when the birth rate dropped below 1.2, it still does not ensure population reproduction.

The peak birth rate in post-Soviet Russia occurred in 2014. The number of newborns was 1.943 million. How to return to these indicators? MK asked the opinion of leading demographers.

“The main factor in the decline in the birth rate is the decline in income of the population since 2014,” says demographer Alexey Raksha. – Secondly, these are games with maternity capital, when it was extended twice at the very last moment, namely 13 months before its expiration date. Then it was transferred to the first child altogether, which spoiled the entire demographic effect of this measure.

– How did military actions in Ukraine affect the demographic situation?

– The first fears due to mobilization were compensated by large cash payments. In our country, the birth rate of second and subsequent children is very dependent on the real disposable income of the population. It was precisely as a result of the SVO that they grew. The money, as they say, went to the people. High salaries for contract soldiers, combat coffins, defense orders… I think because of this, the birth rate per woman has not fallen in 2023. At the same time, the number of births decreased. But this is an “echo of the 90s”: a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age as a result of the decline in fertility 30 years ago.

– Judging by forecasts, the number of births will decline in the next three years. What’s next?

– The numbers mean that each next generation will be one third smaller than the previous one. That is, every 30 years the population will decrease by a third. If you can call it extinction, then yes, we are dying out. But this is how the whole of Europe is dying out. In terms of birth rates, we are in the same boat as the “golden billion”. Another thing is that in Europe the mortality rate is lower and life expectancy is higher.

– How does the influx of migrants from Central Asia affect the demographic situation?

– Not too noticeable. The largest immigration in Russia was in the 90s – a million people came to us then. And since then, immigration has been steadily declining. Now only three countries come to us en masse: from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. But these states also have more alternatives – Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia. Migration of Uzbeks is growing even to Europe. This resource, of course, will also feed Russia, but one should not expect that it will fully compensate for our natural decline. And we must take into account that the least educated residents of these countries are coming to us. They cause social tension and do not fit well into our culture. As a result, it becomes not very socially beneficial.

The demographic situation in Russia can be leveled out if people give birth like Muslim countries, demographer Yuri Krupnov is sure.

– We are dying out because we have a family of one and a half children. This means that on average we have 1.5 children per woman of fertile age. In order for us to even reproduce, we must have 2.5 children. If we try, we can restore simple demographic reproduction in one generation. To do this, the number of families with 3-4 children needs to be increased from 7% to 50%. But women refuse to give birth. After all, according to some data, 57% of large families in our country belong to the category of low-income people. It is clear that no one will voluntarily go into poverty. Therefore, third and fourth births need to be stimulated as much as possible. He gave birth and fell into communism. And then we will achieve simple population reproduction. And to increase it, you need to give birth even more.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29128 dated October 4, 2023

Newspaper headline:
Hello, childless Russia