Cancer cases predicted to rise by 20 percent in 2045

The new estimates were published ahead of World Cancer Day on February 4, highlighting the “increasing incidence” of cancer and the need to address cancer inequalities, according to IARC, the World Health Organization’s cancer agency.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) said: “The number of new cancer cases in Europe is estimated to increase by 22.5 percent over the next two decades.”

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of diagnosed cancers worldwide will increase by 55 percent between 2022 and 2045, from approximately 19.9 million cancer cases in 2022 to 30.9 million cases in 2045. .

WHO said factors contributing to the increase include an aging population, tobacco, alcohol and obesity, and air pollution. And according to statistics, now every fifth person develops cancer during their lifetime, while approximately every ninth man and every twelfth woman die from it.

As cancer incidence increases in the future, cancer deaths will also increase, estimated to rise from 9.7 million in 2022 to 16.6 million worldwide in 2045.

In Europe, the most common type of cancer is breast cancer, followed by prostate and colon cancer, according to IARC estimates for 2022. In terms of mortality, the most common causes in the EU are lung cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer. In Portugal, about 30 percent of the most common causes of cancer are related to tobacco use.

“At a time when health funding across Europe comes under increasing pressure, we risk reversing decades of progress in improving the health and well-being of millions of people,” said WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge. “As we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, my message to everyone—politicians and citizens alike—is that we need more health, not less.”

A new report from the Union International Against Cancer (UICC) states that there are clear inequalities in access to cancer care in Europe. For example, people with low socioeconomic status in Sweden are at higher risk of dying from cancer compared to those in more privileged positions, the UICC notes.

“Despite progress made in the early detection of cancer, treatment and care of cancer patients, there are significant differences in cancer treatment outcomes not only between high- and low-income regions of the world, but also within countries. Tools exist to enable governments to prioritize disease treatment and ensure everyone has access to affordable, quality services. This is not just a matter of resources, but a matter of political will,” says UICC head Cary Adams.

Among the measures the UICC has called for are increased funding to combat cancer disparities, the inclusion of more of these services in national health programs and the introduction of general cancer screening programs.

New estimates from the IARC Global Cancer Observatory have revealed significant disparities between more developed countries and underdeveloped nations. In countries with a high Human Development Index, a measure based on education, life expectancy and income, one in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer, and one in 71 women will die from it. But in countries with a low Human Development Index, only one in 27 women is diagnosed with breast cancer, but one in 48 women die from it.

“Women in countries with a low Human Development Index are 50 percent less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in countries with a high Human Development Index, but they are at much higher risk of dying from the disease due to late diagnosis and insufficient access to quality treatment,” explained IARC Deputy Head of Cancer Surveillance Isabel Soerzhomataram.

According to WHO, the number of new cancer cases in countries with a low Human Development Index will increase by 107 percent between 2022 and 2045, while the estimated number of cancer cases in countries with a high Human Development Index will increase by 36 percent.

“Diagnosis, treatment and survival should not depend on where you were born or what income you make. The fight against cancer must be a whole-of-society effort, bringing together all parts of the health care system at all stages of care,” added Hans Kluge.