Airplane turbulence could get much worse

Most people have experienced turbulence during air travel, when an aircraft flies through colliding air bodies moving at very different speeds.

Severe turbulence can confuse even the most experienced pilot, and five minutes will seem like an eternity. This usually results in a “bumpy ride”, but in the worst cases it can result in damage and injury to passengers and crew.

Turbulence is the leading cause of non-fatal accidents among flight attendants and passengers, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration, and is one of the most common types of aircraft accidents today, according to the US National Transportation Safety Board.

“There is a scale to measure the strength of turbulence,” said Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK. “There is a slight turbulence that puts a little strain on your seatbelt, but food delivery can continue and you will probably be able to walk around the cabin, with maybe some difficulty.

“In addition, there is moderate turbulence, a certain load on the seat belts, anything that is not secured will be dislodged and walking is difficult; even flight attendants are usually instructed to take their seats.

“The worst kind is strong turbulence: it is stronger than gravity, so it can pin you into the seat, and if you are not wearing a seat belt, you will be thrown around the cabin. It is known, for example, about bone fractures during strong turbulence.”

Every year in the US, about 65,000 aircraft enter moderate turbulence and about 5,500 enter severe turbulence. However, these numbers may be destined to rise. Williams believes that climate change is changing turbulence and began studying the issue in 2013. “We ran some computer simulations and found that strong turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” he says.

The findings, which were later confirmed by observations, highlight a type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence” that is not associated with any visual cues such as storms or clouds. Unlike normal turbulence, it occurs suddenly and is difficult to avoid. CNN.

Between 2009 and 2018, flight crew received no warning in about 28% of turbulence incidents, according to the NTSB. Williams’ analysis predicts that by the period 2050-2080, clear-air turbulence will increase significantly around the world, in particular on the busiest flight routes, with the strongest type of turbulence increasing the most.