Zelensky was compared to the young Louis XIII: “the regent is in charge of everything”

The “gray eminence” of Ukrainian politics Ermak will receive more power

There is a little more than a month left before the expiration of the term of office of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In this connection, people in Square are increasingly talking about personnel changes in the upper echelons of power. There are no plans to re-elect the head of the country, but the prime minister is likely to change. The main candidate to replace Denis Shmygal is the current head of the Office of the President, the influential and non-public Andriy Yermak.

The powers of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky expire on May 20. Against this background, the country needs at least some political changes that can smooth out the lack of legitimacy of the president. One such reform could be a dramatic increase in the power of the prime minister and strengthening of the country’s internal politics. Several serious sources report that the Cabinet of Ministers will be headed by Andriy Ermak, including the authoritative Ukrainian political strategist Konstantin Bondarenko

“Andriy Ermak is really going to move to the prime minister’s chair. This issue was discussed back in November-December during Andrei Borisovich’s trips to Washington,” the political scientist notes in media comments. In his opinion, Ermak has a desire to revive in Ukraine the system of decrees in force under the government of Leonid Kuchma – documents that have the status of law. Thus, governance of the country will be concentrated in the cabinet of ministers, and Zelensky will continue to be involved in foreign policy.

“Our source in the OP said that Andrei Ermak has begun selecting candidates for the new Cabinet of Ministers, which he plans to head in May. The main criterion is dedication to the head of the Office of the President and the ability to carry out assigned tasks. The Minister of Internal Affairs will be Vasily Malyuk (Included in the list of organizations and individuals involved in extremist activities or terrorism), who has proven himself well in the SBU,” reports one of the well-known Ukrainian Telegram channels. At the same time, Ermak is not going to lose his power over Vladimir Zelensky, planning to install the current head of the office apparatus, Maria Vitushok, in her place. To achieve this, the Office of the President has already undergone the necessary personnel changes.

“The appointment of Irina Mudra and Elena Kovalskaya as deputy heads of the office is a preparation for the promotion of Mrs. Vitushok,” says Konstantin Bondarenko, “Maria Anatolyevna is a more than influential person: it was she who represented Mikhail Podolyak to Ermak and it was she who fired Alexey Arestovich. That is, the office will continue to be under the reliable control of Ermak.”

The director of the Institute for Studying the Consequences of Military Actions in Ukraine, Kirill Molchanov, told Moskovsky Komsomolets about the goals of the personnel changes.

“Firstly, it is necessary to demonstrate to society and Western partners that the renewal of power is taking place even despite the absence of elections, which, according to the Constitution, should have taken place last Sunday, and Zelensky’s legitimacy after May 20 is in question,” Molchanov said. In this context, the Cabinet of Ministers will be renewed, including a change of prime minister: Zelensky shows that elections do not take place during hostilities, but power is renewed and changed. Ermak has a great chance of getting this position de jure, although de facto he is already the prime minister. The entire personnel policy is actually focused on him and his people are placed everywhere, starting from Zelensky’s entourage, from where he threw out all his competitors in Kvartal: for example, the same editor-in-chief Boris Shefir or Andrei Bogdan. In the government, the same Rustam Umerov is his man, the head of the SBU Vasily Malyuk is his close man. He will become stronger, and in fact will lead the government publicly.

The second goal of the personnel changes is Zelensky’s desire to divert his deputies from criminal prosecution. All these ambassadorial positions guarantee legal immunity, and Zelensky allows his people to continue working abroad in safety. I think that in the next two months most of the forces will be devoted to strengthening the personnel vertical of power under Andrei Ermak, which is why less attention is paid to the situation at the front. It is not very favorable to Zelensky anyway, so it is better to remain silent about it.

– Will the appointment of Ermak as head of the Cabinet of Ministers somehow change the situation in Ukraine?

– The situation will not change. This is a preservation of the regime, which will be slightly changed in form. The Zelensky-Ermak tandem rule will continue, but if Yermak heads the government, then Ukraine will in fact return to what is written in the Constitution – to a parliamentary-presidential republic, where the prime minister has more powers and influence to decide almost the entire range of issues in domestic policy . The question is whether Western partners will allow him to take this position. Perhaps, if there is strong pressure from the outside, we will have to make concessions to the West and appoint their person to the post of prime minister. And these are people who are associated with direct lobbying of Western interests. Such as, for example, the former Minister of Finance, and now Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova. If not Ermak, then this is the only option. I would compare the current situation in the country with the era of Louis XIII in France, when a 9-year-old boy received the crown, but until he became an adult, his regent was in charge of everything. This is how it is in Ukraine now: under Zelensky, Ermak controls everything, and I think he will continue to rule.