“Wild howl of developers”: the Ministry of Finance called for the completion of the preferential mortgage program

Tentative deadline: July 1, 2024

The Ministry of Finance advocated the completion of the preferential mortgage program from July 1, 2024. The department is convinced that full-scale subsidization of the program should be avoided, since the measure provoked an increase in real estate prices and made it less affordable for the population.

Earlier, the Central Bank said that there were signs of overheating in the mortgage market. The regulator is concerned about the gap between prices in the primary housing market and the secondary housing market. Now it is 40%. Independent real estate expert Alexey Krichevsky told MK how to evaluate the completion of the program in the market, what will happen to the demand for mortgages, and whether it is worth taking out a loan for housing now while the benefits remain in place.

– Why does the Ministry of Finance actively oppose preferential mortgages?

– There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the government is already directly saying that preferential mortgages are a help not to buyers, but to developers. Prices for square meters have tripled in some places since 2020, and the national average has increased by 80%. That is, the state, at the expense of taxpayers, supports one industry, while this money could be spent on more socially oriented areas.

Secondly, the reason, in fact, is money. If this year they spend 119 billion rubles on preferential programs, then 453 billion have already been budgeted for 2024. Think about it: the state will give almost half a trillion to banks for issuing loans. Well, one more factor – we are no longer looking at the affordability of housing, but at the availability of mortgages. This is a crazy shift in consciousness – we are trying to understand whether we can afford a loan, not housing.

As a result, 72% of mortgage holders give banks more than half of their income. And the only advantage is construction, since banks may face massive bankruptcies if the economy gets really bad.

– What will the Russians do? Will they rush to register en masse in order to make it before July 1? Is a surge in rush demand possible?

– The peak of demand has already passed this August – over the last summer month, 800 billion rubles were issued in the form of mortgage loans. Further – only downward, there will be no such records. But the demand for preferential programs will still remain, since buyers will think that they are jumping on a departing train, forgetting that immediately after purchase the cost of an apartment drops by a third.

– What will the completion of the program lead to? How will the market react?

– To a wild howl from developers – they say, we are losing margins, bankruptcies will soon begin, and so on. Although in fact, over some time they will simply reconsider their business models and will be forced to either give large discounts or simply reduce or freeze prices. And everyone will calmly continue to live and work.

In addition, the agreements between developers and banks will still be in effect, and mortgages for new buildings will be several percent cheaper than mortgages for secondary buildings, and there is no talk of stopping family and IT mortgages now.