The commissioning of apartment buildings fell by a quarter

In the first quarter, developers commissioned 8.8 million square meters. m of area of ​​apartment buildings, which is 27% less than for the same period in 2023 (12.2 million sq. m), follows from the operational data of Rosstat. The multifamily sector showed negative annual growth for the third month in a row, although the gap from 2023 figures is narrowing. In January, 3 million sq. m. were commissioned. m (minus 47% year-on-year), in February – 2.5 million sq. m. m (minus 13.5%), in March – 3.3 million sq. m. m (minus 6.4%).

In general, the housing market maintained positive dynamics in the first quarter. A total of 29.3 million square meters were commissioned. m (an increase of 1.5%), which was provided by houses built by the population – they account for 70% of the completed housing. The volume of housing delivery is estimated at 20.5 million square meters. m, which is 22.2% more than a year earlier.

According to NOSTROY President Anton Glushkov, the decline in the volume of multi-apartment housing commissioning may be due to the fact that in 2023 there was high demand in the primary market – developers tried to complete previously started projects as quickly as possible. Now, he adds, in most regions demand has fallen by about 15–20% compared to the same periods last year, but this affects new projects and will affect the commissioning of housing in 2025.

We note that in the first quarter in some regions, developers significantly reduced the launch of new projects compared to the same period in 2023 (see Kommersant on April 9). According to Ilya Ponomarev, an expert at the Public Council under the Ministry of Construction, a return to the previous dynamics is possible if the key rate is reduced – “an increase in demand for multi-apartment housing should be expected in areas of dynamic development, industrial centers, where housing is not purchased as an investment instrument, as is often the case in Moscow and the Moscow region , but for future residence.”

Deputy Director of the Institute of Tax Management and Real Estate Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Tatyana Shkolnaya sees the reason for the decline in the curtailment of mortgage benefits – developers “expectedly strive to maintain the margins of their projects and current price levels, so it makes no sense for them to put into operation more housing than they can sell.” In her opinion, the level of competition among developers will help maintain prices by reducing commissioning volumes.

Evgenia Kryuchkova