WHO warns of new dangerous influenza strains: is there a threat of a pandemic

Before they could exhale, a new attack appeared. Already at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, experts from the World Health Organization predict the emergence of four new strains of influenza at once, which they call extremely dangerous. Such that even covid can seem like a slight ailment in comparison. Is a new pandemic possible? Why are new strains scary and will they definitely appear? Can the impending disaster be prevented? These and other questions of “MK” were answered by Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology of the Russian National Research Medical University. N.I. Pirogov Vladimir Nikiforov.

So, according to the prediction of WHO experts, the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 may be overshadowed by the arrival of four new strains of influenza at once, and at the same time, the disease that they will cause will be even more severe than covid. Some specifics: a new subspecies of the 2009 pandemic strain A (H1N1), Hong Kong strain A (H3N2), as well as two subspecies of influenza B Victoria and Yamagata are expected to arrive. It is emphasized that all of them, as one, will give a severe course of the disease and a long recovery period. Despite the fact that so far no one has seen new strains, the symptoms of the future terrible flu are already being called: high fever, nasal congestion, sore throat, lethargy, weakness, general intoxication (however, all these symptoms are characteristic of any ordinary flu).

What kind of new strains threaten us and what to prepare for, “MK” was told by Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology of the Russian National Research Medical University. N.I. Pirogov Vladimir Nikiforov.

– Vladimir Vladimirovich, how do you assess the forecast about the appearance of four new dangerous strains of influenza at the end of the year?

– There is a good Russian proverb: if you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans. I don’t know where the experts have such confidence. The flu virus is constantly changing, with new strains emerging every year, so it’s not surprising. But here, for example, we don’t have Yamagata (B-Yamagata). I don’t even know where the idea that he will appear in the near future comes from. Theoretically, of course, it can, but it’s not certain. By the way, both influenza B strains are included in all quadrivalent influenza vaccines around the world every year, although, I repeat, we have not seen Yamagata for a long time. And vaccines in any case form the so-called background immunity, which will reduce the chances of a severe course of the disease even with the appearance of new strains. But I can say for sure: so far, everything is calm with the flu, and nothing portends a tragedy. Maybe, of course, something will appear.

– How is it possible to make such predictions at all, are there any scientific methods for this?

– You know, when they predict the arrival of four new, moreover, threatening strains, I don’t really believe in it. Most likely, with this “horror story” WHO once again wants to show its importance, and sometimes it does this somewhat redundantly. I don’t think there is any good reason to scare people: we regularly analyze the situation with influenza, and so far no new threatening strains have been identified. But we will watch. We can’t change anything anymore: the vaccine is being prepared not a day or a month.

– Previously, before the advent of coronavirus, many scientists associated the expectation of a pandemic with the influenza virus. Is there a danger of a new influenza pandemic today?

– No, there will definitely not be a new pandemic in the near future. A pandemic begins when a completely new strain emerges, as a result of a so-called antigenic shift, against which humans have little to no immunity. Every year, the influenza virus undergoes antigenic drift: this is when the structure of the outer shell of the virus changes slightly. To start a pandemic, it is necessary for a fundamentally new mutation to appear, against which there is not even background immunity. That is, a completely new strain of the influenza virus, unfamiliar to the immune system, with a radically altered antigenic structure. Influenza A (H1N1) has a greater pandemic potential than influenza A (H3N2). But global changes in the virus rarely occur, and we just had an epidemic, it’s still too early.

But still, we are in danger from the other side. It is associated with bird flu, which has not yet overcome the interspecies barrier and is not able to be transmitted from person to person (it is transmitted only from birds). But any trouble happens, and someday there will be a mutation that will allow the virus to overcome the interspecies barrier – and it will begin to be transmitted from person to person.

Bird flu has been known since the end of the 19th century: then it was called “chicken plague”. It was not until the mid-20th century that scientists discovered that it was an influenza virus and not a specific disease of birds. Scientists around the world are monitoring the changes in this virus and, as they say, keep their finger on the pulse. In our country, even just in case, poultry farmers were classified as people subject to mandatory vaccination. And although there is no vaccine for avian flu, immunization against seasonal flu will give background immunity, that is, it will help prevent death. If the bird flu virus becomes a problem, the vaccine will be created quickly enough, all technologies have been worked out. But so far there is no need for this.