What NATO countries will offer Ukraine at the summit in Vilnius

Before the NATO summit starting on July 11 in Vilnius, more and more ideas are being expressed about how the members of the bloc will describe their interaction with Ukraine. Officials leave room for speculation with their statements. But Kyiv is not expected to join the alliance soon.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on social media on July 8 that “several important decisions for Ukraine and NATO have already been agreed.” “Following the results of the summit, our path to the alliance will definitely become shorter. And this is a very important result,” he wrote.

But there is no clarity about Kyiv’s main demand – an invitation to the alliance itself, Kuleba admitted. Work on the wording, he said, will continue until the last minute of the approval of the summit declaration.

At the same time, Zelensky told CNN on July 4 that he was aware of the impossibility of accepting Ukraine into NATO before the end of hostilities. Representatives of the alliance reveal a little more details.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on July 7 at a press conference told what exactly the rapprochement could be. This is a “multi-year assistance plan to ensure the full alignment of the Ukrainian armed forces with NATO”, the creation of a Ukraine-NATO council, the first meeting of which will be attended by Volodymyr Zelensky, and confirmation that Kiev will become a member of the alliance.

Zelensky himself on the eve of the summit held a tour of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Turkey.

In Sofia, the parties signed a declaration on the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, according to which Bulgaria undertook to provide Kyiv with political support in the matter of joining NATO “as soon as conditions permit.” According to Igor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, 22 out of 31 alliance countries have formalized support for Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

At the same time, US President Joe Biden said on July 7 in an interview with CNN that now is not the right time to resolve the issue of Ukraine’s entry into NATO for a number of reasons. The main one is the ongoing armed conflict with Russia, which would force them to comply with the obligations to protect “NATO territory” in accordance with the fifth article of the alliance treaty.

In addition, Biden noted that now “Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership,” as there are other requirements for the members of the alliance, for example, in terms of their democratization.

At the same time, the United States can provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to those provided by Washington to Israel, but subject to the launch of the peace process.

“USA, as long as this process continues [вступления Украины в НАТО]which will take some time, will be ready to provide the security that we provide to Israel by supplying weapons, equipment they need for defense. If there is a peace agreement, a ceasefire,” Biden said.

United States and Israel since the late 1990s. continuously link 10-year memorandums of understanding that provide the Jewish state with military assistance ($3.8 billion annually since 2019).

US Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith vowed on July 7 that the final document should not expect “just a repeat of the Bucharest summit” in 2008, when it was fixed that Georgia and Ukraine would definitely join the military bloc. At the same time, since then, these countries of the former Soviet Union have not received a “Membership Action Plan (MAP) in NATO” because of the position of France and Germany.

Now Smith noted that the issue of canceling the MAP in NATO for Ukraine is being discussed. Practically the same is written by the Politico edition on July 9, citing diplomats dealing with NATO issues. According to them, the positions of the United States and Germany “softened somewhat” on the eve of the summit and became closer to the countries of Eastern Europe. Therefore, the alliance is likely to make a more concrete promise to Kiev than in 2008. At the same time, a senior diplomat spoke of a “group of skeptics” in the alliance who want some conditions to apply to Ukraine’s application, and encouraging promises were not made ahead of time.

In addition, some Western officials share the fear that a formal invitation from Kiev to join the alliance could spur Russian President Vladimir Putin into more drastic measures, while others see Ukraine’s invitation to NATO as a possible part of the peace talks.

According to its guarantees, Israel receives advanced weapons from the West, but Ukraine is not deprived in this regard, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian government, believes. Ukraine has not yet been provided with modern fighter jets, but the most advanced drones and tanks are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the expert continues, at the Vilnius summit, NATO will simply once again confirm its intentions.

According to Denisov, a memorandum of support for Ukraine will be published, a number of slogans will be expressed, but nothing more will happen. The West does not intend to give any guarantees to Kyiv yet, at most – with a 50% probability there will be a statement about assistance to Ukraine in the supply of aviation. In addition, a Ukraine-NATO council will be created and previous agreements confirmed, so this is not a serious change in Kyiv’s cooperation with the alliance, but a “light modification”. Members of the alliance do not want and will not take on more serious obligations to Ukraine, Denisov sums up.

Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO – an obvious fact, says Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine department at the Institute of CIS Countries. Both the leaders of European countries and the leadership of NATO spoke out against this idea. Probably, Kyiv will try to sell the impending decision on the transfer of F-16 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a success of the Vilnius summit. This initiative, adds Skorikov, has been in preparation for a long time, pilots are training, but the decision has not yet been formalized, so they will try to present it as a resounding victory. Thus, NATO members will also be pleased that they have shown their support for Kyiv.

As for Zelensky’s possible reaction to Biden’s words, the current Ukrainian authorities tend to lobby their interests in a scandalous blackmail form, the expert says. Nevertheless, Skorikov notes, the West and the United States have leverage against Zelensky, with which it will be possible to call him to the decency.