“We will see the impact of mobilization at the end of 2023”: demographers assessed the situation

According to the preliminary forecast of the birth rate for 2022-2050 from the Institute of Demography. Vishnevsky HSE, now we have 1.49 children per woman, and in subsequent years this figure will decrease and by 2027 will fall to 1.17.

“In itself, the number of children per woman is already declining in 2022, in 2023 growth is unlikely to be expected: stress, lower incomes,” an associate professor at the Institute of Demography at the National Research University Higher School of Economics told MK Vladimir Kozlov. – The impact of mobilization, which we will see at the very end of 2023, is ambiguous; sometimes a jump is possible (in a number of countries this was observed) – due to an increase in conceptions from men leaving the family. But not always and not everywhere. Under current conditions, the lower scenario (coefficient 1.17) may become quite real.

The situation in the country will not improve for sure, since up to 300,000 healthy men of working age will leave the economy in the event of mobilization. The volume of migration has not yet been calculated; preliminary figures vary greatly. It is difficult to make up for such a sharp outflow, except perhaps through temporary labor migration.

Here, by the way, a question arises with refugees from the territory of Ukraine and the DPR and LPR, of whom a large number arrived to us: where and how are they employed? (at the end of August there were more than 3.6 million people, – Auth.). And can they replace the dropouts? In theory, this would be the necessary reserve, but they still need to be able to use it correctly.

– Due to refugees, will it be possible to increase the birth rate at least a little?

– Fewer children are born and for objective reasons (a small number of women of reproductive age). If there are women of reproductive age among the refugees, and if they give birth now, it will work out. The question is, will they do it now?

But if we are talking not about the number of children, but about the number of children per woman, then the refugees are unlikely to improve the situation. Now, in my opinion, it is important to support families with children who already have a high risk of poverty, and in the current conditions it will only increase. One-time benefits will not be an option – support must be permanent.

Independent demographer Alexey Raksha gave us a sad picture:

– We have 15 million men aged 19 to 35, and, for example, if even half a million are called up, and some of them die (up to 15-20% in the worst case), then their death in itself will not significantly affect the birth rate . But the very fact of mobilization, that is, separation from the family, from women, will have a little effect.

There is also a positive example: during the Second World War, American soldiers, before being sent to the front, urgently married and conceived children. But then there were other values, and the atmosphere itself, it seems to me, was different. In addition, then in the United States there was a large increase in the economy after the Great Depression. And the increase in the birth rate even before the start of mobilization was not due to the fact that it was urgent to get married before the front, so that the wives could then receive some benefits, but precisely because of the good economic situation.

But what happened in the 40s of the last century cannot be compared with the 20s of this century. Because now there are other values, another dissemination of information.

By the end of the year, the consequences of the beginning of the SVO on February 24, the emergency departure of the first wave, the jump in inflation by 10% in March, and, accordingly, the fall in household incomes, will begin to affect.

I do not believe Rosstat that our incomes have fallen by 1-2%. Since March, there has been a drop in consumption by 8-10%. This is how I roughly estimate the decline in incomes of the population. This means that the birth rate of second and third children will fall by these same 8-10%. Plus, two wonderful programs were extended with a huge delay – a family mortgage and a state payment of 450 thousand rubles. for a mortgage for large families, which were supposed to end on December 31. They were only renewed in June, it’s very late! This will lead to a collapse in the birth rate of the first and third children in January-February, because it is impossible to give birth to a child in 7 months. In a good way, these programs should be indefinite.

And all this against the background of the fact that the number of women of the main childbearing age in our country is still declining by almost 3% every year. From 2010 to 2030, the number of potential mothers in Russia will decrease by 40%. Therefore, I believe that in the next two years the number of births in Russia will be a record low for 200 years.”

And here is the opinion of the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development Yuri Krupnov:

– In conditions of catastrophic demographics, it is difficult to understand how the conscription of 300,000 men who do not celebrate their first child every year can affect the birth rate, if we remember that we have an average of 1.5 children per family in our lifetime. For example, in 1943, after the defeat of the Nazis near Stalingrad, our birth rate jumped sharply, although these were the hardest times. People felt that a turning point was coming in the war and victory dawned. It seems to me that against the background of what is happening now there will be a slight decrease in the number of births, but this is not an issue that can be somehow logically causally discussed.

As for the measures, then, as before, we need to rely on 3-4-child families. And we need to think not from the point of view that we need to wait for the end of the NWO and the end of sanctions – and then we will begin to improve demographics, this is an extremely inadequate position. On the contrary, today the question of demography is a question of life-affirmation. And so today, in my opinion, is the time for an incredibly ambitious and active demographic policy of the state.