VTsIOM and FOM published the first party ratings in 2024

This Friday, the two main Russian pollsters – VTsIOM and FOM – published their first party ratings of the year. So far, the presidential campaign has had little impact on them: regardless of whether parties nominate their own candidate for election or not, their indicators generally correspond to last year’s values. Although there are some changes. Thus, according to FOM data, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party now share second and third places with the same result of 7%, and last year the Liberal Democrats imposed a fight on the communists and first one or the second took the lead in the ratings. But VTsIOM has the opposite: if in 2023 the second position remained stably with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, now Polster gives it to the Liberal Democratic Party. Sociologists note that it is too early to talk about how the presidential campaign will affect party ratings, but everyone has a chance to prove themselves in one way or another.

On Friday, the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) And VTsIOM published the first regular ratings of government and parties this year. Judging by FOM data, the presidential campaign that started last year has not had a significant impact on the party preferences of Russians.

Thus, United Russia (UR) traditionally takes first place with a score of 50%. This is slightly higher than the last few measurements last year: then its rating fluctuated in the range of 47-49%. Let us recall that the party in power, as in 2018, does not nominate its own candidate in the presidential elections on March 15–17 of this year, but supports and actively participates in the campaign of Vladimir Putin, who ran in the elections as a self-nominated candidate.

Second and third places are shared by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party with a result of 7%. In the second half of last year, the parties competed for second place, and the Liberal Democrats were even ahead of the Communists in a number of measurements: for example, at the beginning of December, the rating of the former was 11%, the latter – 8%. Let us recall that the Chairman of the State Duma Committee for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, Nikolai Kharitonov, will lead the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in the elections. And the LDPR is its new leader, head of the Duma Committee on International Politics Leonid Slutsky. Both have already begun campaign trips.

Third and fourth place in the FOM ranking is shared by A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) and New People (NL) with a rating of 3%. Let us remind you that the SRZP did not nominate its candidate for the elections, publicly declaring its support for Vladimir Putin, but the NL nominated the Deputy Speaker of the State Duma, ex-candidate for mayor of Moscow Vladislav Davankov. It should be noted that last year the rating of the Socialist Revolutionaries reached a maximum of 5%, the “New People” – just 3%. FOM conducted its survey door-to-door from January 12–14, in 53 regions with a sample of 1,500 respondents. Their survey was proactive in nature, and its statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.

But VTsIOM shows a slightly different picture. Thus, in his rating the places were distributed as follows: “United Russia” (43.7%), LDPR (8.7%), Communist Party of the Russian Federation (7.7%), “New People” (4.6%), “Fair Russia – For the truth” (3.7%).

Let us note that over the past year, according to pollster data, second place was still consistently occupied by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. And the rating of the Right Russia party never fell below 4% last year. VTsIOM conducted its initiative survey by telephone from January 9 to 14, on a sample of 1,600 respondents from all over Russia. Its statistical error is 1%.

We also note that Vladimir Putin’s trust rating, according to the FOM, is now 79%, and 81% of Russians rate his work as rather good. Both indicators are generally consistent with last year’s values. According to VTsIOM, the activities of the country’s president are approved by 77% of Russians. Polster also measures Russians’ trust in Russian politicians. In first place there is Vladimir Putin (79.8%), followed by Mikhail Mishustin (62.7%), Gennady Zyuganov (30.3%), Sergei Mironov (27.8%), Leonid Slutsky (17. 2%), Alexey Nechaev (8.2%). At the same time, only Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Mishustin have indicators of trust that exceed distrust.

Leading FOM analyst Grigory Kertman believes that it is too early to make a forecast about how the presidential campaign will affect the ratings of specific parties.

“In principle, everyone has a chance to increase the recognition and popularity of the party, the question is how much campaign participants will be willing or able to take advantage of it,” he says. Party ratings may rise or fall depending on how strong a candidate’s campaign turns out to be, but this will become more obvious at the stage of the election when candidates begin to have a more active presence in the public space, the sociologist says.

Much will depend on how party candidates play their cards, says VTsIOM general director Valery Fedorov. For the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, competition for the place of party number two is relevant. Previously, it belonged unconditionally to the communists, but this is no longer the case. For the LDPR, which is in a state of transition from the “Zhirinovsky party” to the “Slutsky party,” taking second place is now vitally important, the sociologist notes. Therefore, she will give 150%. If it works out, then Leonid Slutsky will secure his place in the upper echelon of party politicians at least until 2027, Mr. Fedorov continues. For the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the main task is to calmly carry out a change of leader; there is a serious struggle around this in the party. The nomination of Nikolai Kharitonov, who “doesn’t scare anyone, but doesn’t excite anyone either,” should help Zyuganov calmly decide on a successor, the sociologist believes.

Finally, “New People” are participating in the presidential election for the first time. For them, it is not the percentage of votes received that is important, but the fact of participation itself.

Therefore, the party is represented not by the leader, but by the frontman, Vladislav Davankov, his task is to demonstrate the flag, nothing more, concludes Valery Fedorov. As for parties that do not nominate their candidates, this is not the first experience for the Socialist Revolutionaries, the sociologist recalls: they have already demonstrated their readiness to abandon a candidate in favor of Putin. Most likely, this will not greatly affect the party’s rating: they have other problems now. “United Russia” is Putin’s party and will remain so. It always serves as a base platform for the main candidate. For Vladimir Putin himself, the main thing will be the level of turnout (the higher it is, the more legitimate the result will be), and also that the elections take place calmly, without scandals and attempts to discredit the procedure itself.

Andrey Vinokurov, Anastasia Kornya