Virologists described the current epidemic situation: the flu is worse than the coronavirus

For two weeks in a row, we have recorded more than 900 thousand respiratory infections weekly

Currently, the coronavirus can no longer scare anyone, but the flu remains the most dangerous infection from which you can die. Epidemiologists and virologists described the current epidemiological situation, noting that until April (and some doctors believe that until mid-May) a decline in ARVI and influenza diseases cannot be expected.

Russians are now experiencing a season of respiratory infections, but in the last three weeks the epidemiological situation has not differed from last year. After the expected decrease in the number of diseases during the long New Year holidays (but this was an imaginary decline, since people simply did not go to doctors on these days), a post-New Year increase is observed. For two weeks in a row, we have recorded more than 900 thousand respiratory infections weekly, among which influenza A (H3N2) dominates. Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Chairman of the National Association of Infectious Disease Specialists named after Academician V.I. Pokrovsky, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Gorelov spoke about this during a press conference in Izvestia. Influenza A will remain with Russians for another three to four weeks, then influenza B will prevail. “And it is influenza B that traditionally indicates that the epidemic rise has begun to decline, and usually this process is completed by mid-May,” Gorelov added.

At the same time, now in 48 regions of the Russian Federation the long-term average indicators are exceeded, and about 15% of the incidence of ARVI and influenza traditionally occurs in Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg. But, fortunately, according to the academician, “we live in the 21st century, the century of great technologies, and we can identify many pathogens in express mode to find out what is associated with the respiratory syndrome in a particular patient.” It is very important to have a laboratory transcript, since during one laboratory test at the institute under Rospotrebnadzor, only 41% of patients out of all those who were diagnosed with “influenza” on the sick leave (based on the presence of symptoms) were actually confirmed to have influenza, as well as others illnesses can be severe and masquerade as the flu.

For other infectious diseases, the situation is generally “relatively stable,” Gorelov assured.

Elena Malinnikova, head of the Department of Virology of the Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education of the Russian Ministry of Health, in turn, slightly reduced the time frame: at least until April we are still in this busy period and may encounter an “unforeseen rise” in influenza and ARVI diseases, so doctors “are not relaxing yet.” “We are now at the very equator of the epidemic season for the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections; there may be rises in March,” the virologist warned, emphasizing that people with certain disorders of the immune system and the elderly are at risk.

At the same time, Malinnikova noted that the H3N2 (A) influenza virus has been circulating since 1967 and during this time it has undergone quite a lot of partial mutations and has undergone a certain antigenic drift. “And today, from the point of view of virology and the so-called recertification theory, this particular virus may be subject to serious changes, perhaps an antigenic shift will occur, and this particular virus may be replaced by some, possibly seriously pathogenic, virus of another influenza,” she said.

Doctors said that currently, influenza is the most serious infection for infectious disease specialists in terms of its consequences. And certain categories of people with the flu (and most often with the flu plus Covid) end up in intensive care units. “Analyzing Covid, we now understand that the influenza virus is more dangerous than Covid,” the doctors noted.

Regarding the coronavirus, Professor of Virology, Chief Researcher at the Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology named after. N.F. Gamaleya Anatoly Altstein said that the most common virus in Moscow today is the “Pirola” strain, which differs from the original “Omicron” by several dozen additional mutations. Muscovites passed the peak of incidence back in mid-December (and the rise began in September), when about 15,000 cases of infection were recorded per day. Recently, in January, 3,000–4,000 cases were recorded per day. At the moment, there is a “clear decline” of this disease (virologists hope that this disease will continue to go at very low numbers).

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29202 dated January 25, 2024

Newspaper headline:
Flu defeated Covid