Unprecedented warmth became an April Fool’s joke: up to 30 degrees in the sun

The first bells of climate change have rung in Moscow

The truly June warmth arrived in the capital region at the beginning of this week. On April 1, a new temperature record for the day was set in Moscow – 20.3 degrees Celsius. This is 2.5 degrees higher than the previous maximum, which was recorded 41 years ago, in 1983. On Tuesday, forecasters also expect a new record for April 2. Meanwhile, Russian scientists from the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences recently assessed how global warming, which is no longer in doubt, will affect Russians by the middle of the 21st century.

The main dangers of climate change include so-called heat waves, like those that occurred in Moscow and the rest of European Russia in 2010. During that period, 44 days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius were recorded. Heat and smog from numerous forest fires caused severe economic and environmental damage.

It is believed that the risks from such waves increase with large population concentrations in cities, as this leads to the emergence of so-called “heat islands”.

Scientists compared temperatures in Russia in 2015–2023 with forecasts provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the mid-21st century (2040–2059).

They compiled two tables. One reflects a widespread increase in the number of relatively very warm days, into most of the summer season. For example, if this summer in Crimea and the east of the country there are up to 60 very warm summer days, then by 2050 their number will reach 90. In a number of areas their number will even increase to 123 (!), that is, the summer season will become much longer.

Another table shows the expansion of the zone of absolute high temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius to densely populated areas in the coastal zone of the Black and Caspian Seas, central Russia, the Southern Urals and Siberia. For example, if now the average maximum temperature in Moscow does not exceed 30 degrees, then after 2040 it will join the list of regions to which 35-degree heat will spread, and the same North Caucasus, where last summer it reached 40, will become a region , where temperatures exceeding this mark will prevail.

For large cities in the Krasnodar Territory, Moscow, Tyumen and other regions, extreme climate will worsen the situation due to the accumulation of a large population in these regions – by the 2050s, migration flows to these regions will increase. In the republics of the Caucasus, the population is also expected to increase, but due to natural growth.

An increase in temperature records and an expansion of the summer season will directly affect people’s well-being and lead to droughts, which means that the above forecast should be taken into account when planning additional measures to support the population in the future.

Well, this concerns the climate in general. And if we return to our current weather, then it will pamper us with warmth only until Wednesday. An Atlantic cyclone is already actively moving across the north-west of European Russia, bringing us rain with gusty winds of up to 17–22 m/s, and the first thunderstorms in the south. Rain is expected in Moscow and the Moscow region from Wednesday. And we are even lucky, because snow, freezing rain and ice are expected in Karelia and the Leningrad region!

So, if on April 2 in Moscow summer temperatures are expected to be +21…23 degrees, in the region +18…23 degrees and a south wind at a speed of 6-11 meters per second, then on April 3 it will become noticeably colder. On Wednesday night +11…13 degrees are expected, in the region +8…13, and during the day +15…17 and +13…18, respectively, and even with rain and gusts of wind that will reach up to 20 meters per second.

On the night of Thursday, April 4, it will rain in places again at temperatures in Moscow of +5…7 degrees, in the region +3…8. During the day, the thermometer will not rise above +7…9 degrees in the Mother See; throughout the region it will fluctuate between +6 and +11 degrees.

By Friday it will get even colder. Throughout the Moscow region it will be -3…+2 degrees at night, and +3…8 during the day. The wind will not blow strongly, at a speed of only 2–7 meters per second, but from the north. On Saturday, April 6, no significant warming is expected either: night frosts down to -4 degrees, during the day +6…11.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29248 dated April 2, 2024

Newspaper headline:
June starts in April