Ukraine loses grain exports: “It would be enough for yourself”

Farm workers were taken to the military registration and enlistment offices

Spring is the traditional time for the sowing campaign. But this year, Ukraine faces difficulties in agriculture. There are several reasons: from the lack of free sown areas to the lack of seeds, fertilizers, and most importantly, people. In what condition is the agricultural production of the republic and whether hunger threatens the Ukrainians, MK understood.

Ukraine is rich in fertile agricultural land resources. In 2021, the country ranked seventh in the world in wheat production. Now the situation has changed. Ukraine this year will not be able to sow about 500 thousand hectares. We are talking about the districts of Mykolaiv, Kherson and Kharkiv regions.

Analysts point out that this is not the only problem. As a result of the “grain deal”, almost all grain, including sowing grain, was supposedly exported from the country. In addition to seeds, the country lacks fuel, fertilizer prices have risen to a record high, which means that the 2023 harvest will be low.

But the information that Ukrainian farmers were left without a single seed for sowing is not entirely fair. There will definitely be enough seeds for Ukraine, Taras Vysotsky, the first deputy head of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic, said. Their production is located mainly in Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, on March 3, the first 3.5 thousand hectares of grain and leguminous crops were sown in the Odessa region alone. In addition, according to Alla Stoyanova, director of the Department of Agrarian Policy, Food and Land Relations of the Odessa Administration, 760,000 hectares of winter crops were sown in autumn. Of these, 540 thousand hectares of winter wheat. 220 thousand hectares of winter barley and 180 thousand hectares of winter rapeseed.

However, the production of complex fertilizers is really underdeveloped in the country. In 2021, Belarus was the largest fertilizer importer (32% of total imports), and now Kyiv is looking for alternative sources of these supplies. “You can buy American fertilizers. It will be more expensive, but there is a replacement. In any case, it will be like with Belarusian oil products. You can replace it, but the prices are higher, which means that the question of profitability and pricing of the final product arises, ”political analyst Kirill Molchanov says to MK.

There are several more obstacles for a successful sowing campaign, the expert continues: “Because of the mobilization, farmers are physically short of people who could take care of the farm. Both sowing and harvesting may be under threat. Much will also depend on whether the “grain deal” is extended on March 18. If so, then the sowing campaign will somehow pass. If not, then it’s far from certain. Farmers will not want to sow anything without being sure that they will be able to implement it. You can’t take a lot of grain by rail.”

What will happen to the Ukrainian economy in the future is an open question. Large enterprises are closing, and even if we imagine that the conflict ends suddenly, it will take about 70 years to clear the fields, Molchanov notes.

At the same time, political scientist Sergei Markov emphasizes that despite the fact that hostilities are taking place in the main territories where farmlands are located, a large number of large enterprises in Dnepropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Nikolaev and other regions remain unaffected. “Even if they don’t have enough seeds, they will be given them. Technique is enough. The main problem is the lack of people. However, it makes no sense to talk about grain exports by Ukraine this year,” he says.

According to him, it may take up to 10 years to restore productivity. Everything will depend on what resources will be thrown at it.

Opponents of lifting the moratorium on the sale of Ukrainian lands can rejoice at the current situation. Despite the fact that in most developed countries of the world, such as France, Great Britain, Spain or Belgium, the land market has long been open, in Kiev the lifting of the moratorium took place with great difficulty: deputies sabotaged the adoption of the law several times. Today, this issue can be considered closed: hardly anyone wants to buy the land on which hostilities are being waged.