Turkmenistan saw a threat to its interests in the “gas union” of Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

On August 12, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan released a statement by the deputy chairman of the state concern Turkmengaz, Myrad Archaev, that Russia’s plans to create a “gas union” with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan affect the interests of Ashgabat. In this regard, Archaev listed the questions that Turkmens had after an interview with RIA Novosti, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Dmitry Birichevsky, in which he allowed “expansion of trilateral cooperation in the gas sector.”

“Mr. Birichevsky’s statement raises at least a few questions. What “opportunities for expansion” are we talking about, what “other states” are showing interest in them, what, in principle, is behind the “trilateral cooperation” in the gas sector? The streamlined language used by the Russian diplomat does not provide answers to them. And complete clarity is required here, since the interests of other states are affected,” said Archaev.

The Turkmen official recalled that Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been cooperating for a long time on the transportation of natural gas to China: three branches of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline (aka Central Asia-China. – Vedomosti) are currently operating, which, according to Vedomosti, “Turkmengaz”, built exclusively by this company and the Chinese side (CNPC), as well as all production facilities. At the same time, the Kazakh and Uzbek parts of the pipeline were built by joint ventures of companies from these countries and China (for example, the Asian Gas Pipeline of CNPC and Kazmunaigas, Eastern Gas Pipeline of Uzbekneftegaz and CNPC), and the Russian Stroytransgaz also took part in the construction of the Turkmen part. “. According to Ashgabat, it is now supplying 40 billion cubic meters through the mentioned gas pipeline. m. per year out of 55 billion, the rest is provided by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

“Gas sources from other countries to fill the pipeline are not provided, and the existing scheme for distributing gas volumes supplied to China does not include plans to expand the membership of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline project,” said the deputy chairman of Turkmengas. He believes that any changes on this issue require prior agreement with all participants, and no consultations were held with Turkmenistan. Ashgabat called this approach “incomprehensible and unacceptable”, expressing serious concern about the statements of “official representatives, one way or another affecting the international obligations of our country.”

Vedomosti sent a request to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

On November 29, 2022, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia is discussing with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan the creation of a “gas union” both for gas supplies between countries and for export, including to China. He emphasized that these three countries have had “virtually a single gas transportation system” since Soviet times. On the same day, clarifications were also given by the press secretaries of the leaders of the states: for example, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the first stage implies the creation of a coordination mechanism, and in the future – the development of gas consumption and transportation infrastructure for both domestic and foreign markets. The press secretary of the Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Ruslan Zheldibai, noted that the matter concerns the creation of a “tripartite gas union” with the aim of “coordinating actions in the transportation of Russian gas through the territories of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.” On December 7, Reuters cited Uzbek Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov as saying that Tashkent was only considering concluding a “technical contract” for Russian fuel supplies through Kazakhstan, while Tashkent would never agree to political terms in exchange for gas.

On January 14, 2023, the newspaper Gazeta.uz wrote, citing sources, that in December last year, Russia, during negotiations, offered to take the GTS of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on the balance sheet and cede the rights to supply gas to China to the Uzbek company Uzgaztrade to Gazprom. , but then these conditions were removed. The interaction of the parties continued in 2023 – first in January, Gazprom signed roadmaps on cooperation with the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan and the government of Kazakhstan. In February 2023, Deputy Chairman of the Board of QazaqGaz Arman Kasenov said that his company offered Gazprom to consider the possibility of creating a transit gas pipeline to China, which could be involved in the gasification of Kazakhstan.

In June, on the sidelines of the SPIEF, Gazprom signed agreements with the national gas company of Kazakhstan QazaqGaz and with the Uzbek specialized agency on the supply of Russian gas to Uzbekistan via the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline through Kazakhstan. As reported in the Uzbek Ministry of Energy, Russia will start exporting gas to Uzbekistan in the amount of 9 million cubic meters from October 2023. m per day, and the annual volume will be about 2.8 billion cubic meters. m.

According to the GTU of the PRC, in the first half of 2023, Turkmenistan turned out to be the main supplier of pipeline gas to China, having sold this raw material for $5.06 billion (Russia is in second place with a revenue of $3.4 billion), Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are in fourth and fifth place respectively ($448.7 million and $203.9 million). As Reuters reported, in 2022, China imported 35 billion cubic meters from Turkmenistan. m. of gas in the amount of $10.3 billion, and Russian supplies for the same year through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline amounted to 16 billion cubic meters. m and cost Beijing $ 4 billion. In addition, according to Reuters, China considers the construction of a new gas pipeline from Turkmenistan Line D to be the highest priority, through which they plan to supply 30 billion cubic meters. m annually.

The statement of Turkmengaz looks somewhat strange, since, most likely, the Russian and Turkmen delegations had earlier opportunities to discuss topical issues in the context of creating a “triple gas union,” says Aleksey Grivach, deputy director general of the National Energy Security Fund. Ashgabat did not participate in the construction of the Kazakh and Uzbek parts of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, and therefore it is hardly possible to say that Turkmenistan now has a serious say in the issue of Russian gas supplies through these countries, the expert believes. Potential negotiations on such supplies of Russian gas to China look like a logical step against the backdrop of difficulties that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have to ensure gas exports, Grivach said. Russian gas, if there is a physical connection, can be supplied under a substitution scheme, which generally removes any questions about the necessary consent of third parties.

The reaction of the Turkmen side is an expression of extreme concern about Russia’s pivot to the south and the expansion of its gas supplies to Central Asia and through it to China, said Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher for the Central Asia sector at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO. Russia, through the reverse of the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline, is becoming an important gas supplier to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as to Kyrgyzstan, whose gas distribution system is already being developed by Gazprom. Potentially, deliveries can go further to Tajikistan and, most importantly, to China via a new route, which directly affects the interests of Turkmenistan, China’s main gas partner in Central Asia.

“There is a direct risk of destruction of Ashgabat’s de facto monopoly position, which primarily determines the tone of the statement by the Turkmen side,” says Pritchin. Now Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan can no longer actually act as gas exporters due to the growth of domestic consumption, the expert adds, and through the technical connection of the Central Asia – Center and Central Asia – China gas pipelines, it may be technically possible to supply Russian gas to China . Since each national operator of the Central Asia-China pipeline is a joint venture between a Chinese and a local company, everything will depend only on the countries themselves, through which the pipelines pass, and the position of the PRC, experts agree.