“This is no longer your country”: Poroshenko came up with a cunning plan to overthrow Zelensky

Ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in the Verkhovna Rada suggested that Zelensky “unhook” from the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny and begin rebooting power from himself. Media close to the Office of the President immediately accused Poroshenko of preparing a coup and predicted that he would soon be put behind bars on charges of treason. According to political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko, things are heading towards a direct clash between representatives of different political groups in Kyiv. And all this against the backdrop of a disaster at the front.

Just on the eve of Poroshenko’s demarche, it became known about the completion of the pre-trial investigation into the so-called. “coal case”, in which the ex-president is involved. After the defense has read the materials, the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) must send an indictment against Poroshenko to the court. After this, he becomes accused in this criminal case. Several Telegram channels that are associated with Zelensky’s Office reported that Poroshenko will soon go to prison.

Zaluzhny’s question also remains open. At the beginning of the week, Zelensky admitted that he intends to purge part of the country’s military and political leadership. At the same time, the Ukrayinska Pravda newspaper reported yesterday that the leadership of the SBU warned employees about the threat of mass unrest in the event of Zaluzhny’s resignation. The current brigade and battalion commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received instructions from their leadership to monitor the behavior of their personnel.

We talked to political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko about what is happening in Kyiv.

– Poroshenko actually went all-in. Did he become so bold because the threat of landing became real?

– When Poroshenko was still abroad, a clear signal was sent to him. Ukrainian media then wrote that Pyotr Alekseevich probably would not return, because otherwise he would be imprisoned. But then I assumed that he would return, because he was a man unnaturally committed to the fight for the presidency. He wants to die in it. For him, this is a fixed idea. He is confident that he can get it a second time because what happened in 2019 was an unfortunate accident. Therefore, Poroshenko returned and spoke in the Rada.

– What are his plans for returning to the presidency based on?

– Throughout this year, while the story with Zaluzhny dragged on (he has been “removed” for the 12th month), I said that Poroshenko is inflating the conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny in order to get carte blanche from the Americans to replace Zelensky. He understands that Zaluzhny cannot be the leader of the country. If Zelensky is not there, then who? Yes, here – Pyotr Alekseevich. His idea was to organize elections under American pressure and re-elect Zelensky. But the Americans simply washed their hands of it and said: do what you want. Poroshenko is now using this and telling his potential accomplices: the Americans said that Zelensky can be overthrown. So let’s just overthrow him, and the United States will rubber-stamp it all. Although this is not a fact yet. Because legitimate elections are one thing, and a coup d’etat is another. But Poroshenko is trying to make the best of the situation.

– But Zelensky can simply put him in jail. It’s not for nothing that the investigation into his case was completed.

– The question will be whose orders and how diligently the security forces will carry out their orders. The development of these events cannot be predicted. It is clear that things are heading towards a collision. What format will this clash take? It depends on a lot of things. It depends on how controlled the Zelensky SBU is. It seems to be under control, it is led by Zelensky’s people. But, on the other hand, they all understand that the state is living its last days, and tomorrow they will not report to Zelensky, but ask for political asylum somewhere in the West. They think about how the West will react to their actions. Maybe it’s better to go on vacation, go to the country, and not pick up the phone? Or give an order so that the subordinates do not carry it out, and then throw up their hands – I gave the order, but they don’t want to, I can’t do anything? Poroshenko outlined his position: Zelensky must be removed. Zelensky also outlined his position: he will not go anywhere. The next question is what forces they can mobilize in their support. Formally, Zelensky’s position is ideal. Under martial law, he can film and arrest anyone. But people carry out orders.

– Does Poroshenko want to stage a military coup?

– Don’t know. It often happens that they come to the head of state and say: dear, except for those 4 people who are sitting in your reception room – assistants and secretaries – no one in the country supports you anymore. This is no longer your country. So pack your things and leave on good terms. And then no military personnel are needed. If the government is sagging and feels that no one is following its orders, that the mayor’s office is not picking up the phone, the governors are not obeying, then sometimes you just have to take your suitcase and leave. If the government, in conditions where it has lost control over the country, tries to restore it by force, then it may run into retaliatory force. Now no one knows how events will unfold. Zelensky may believe that certain officials and security forces support him. But each of them has a chain of people subordinate to them. And when an order descends along this vertical, it may not be fulfilled at any level. This is what happened when Yanukovych tried to bring the Airborne Forces to Kyiv in February 2014 to scare the Maidan, but they didn’t get there. They said: our paths were blocked. Then videos appeared: a train with a battalion of paratroopers was blocked by 10 people. If we wanted to drive through, we would drive through. But they turned around and returned to their places of deployment. This is how it happens. You give an order, but it is not carried out “for objective reasons.” This was the case when, at one time, Yushchenko gave the order to move to Kyiv to units of internal troops. The commander gave the troops an order, the troops left the barracks, reached the first intersection, and there was a traffic police post, two policemen. They say: it is forbidden to go further. The troops turned around and went to the barracks: the traffic police won’t let us in. Zelensky, of course, will try to imprison Poroshenko. He will call the prosecutor, the SBU. And then the question is what specific performers will do. Will they arrest him or will they come, stand at his house and say: but the security didn’t let us in, he didn’t open the door for us. Or they will bring him to court, and the court will say: why did you bring him here? You have violated such and such. Let go. Or maybe it will be closed and he will end up in prison. Now the situation is see-saw. As it develops, it will become clear who has the best chance.

– Is Poroshenko behind Zaluzhny’s promotion in the West?

– Zaluzhny was promoted by the Ukrainian media, and the Western press picked it up after them. Yes, Poroshenko was behind this. This was an element of pitting Zaluzhny against Zelensky, firstly. And secondly, this is how the opinion (fair) was formed in the West that Zelensky is a worthless little man who solves only his own problems. This was Poroshenko’s job, but the West did not interfere with him.