The US wants to combine aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan in one law

There are growing voices in the White House and Congress in favor of bundling military aid to Israel and other US allies into one bill to make it easier to pass. According to Axios news agency sources, the current candidate for the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Jim Jordan, could put to a vote a bill combining military aid to Ukraine and Israel if he succeeds in winning the position of Speaker. The possible inclusion in the same package of initiatives to arm Taiwan and strengthen border controls on the border with Mexico was announced by the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Republican Mike Turner. One of the Republican senators, Lindsey Graham, spoke in support of the combined package.

“If you [республиканцы в палате представителей] withdraw support from Ukraine, then Russia will continue its actions, which will lead to war between NATO and Russia, and this, in turn, will be the green light for China to invade Taiwan,” the senator said. At the same time, the allocation of funds for Tel Aviv remains a higher priority. The American leader is expected to discuss these issues at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to the Middle East (Joe Biden will visit Israel and Jordan), which begins on October 18. According to The New York Times, Tel Aviv has already requested $10 billion from the United States for military needs. The US President clarified that he plans to coordinate the allocation of funds with Congress immediately after the House of Representatives resumes its work after the election of the Speaker.

But not all American lawmakers are ready to combine aid intended for Israel with other initiatives. “I don’t think it’s [комбинированный пакет] good idea,” said House Rules Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-S.C.).

“I think we can act on Israel right now, but I don’t think we should combine it with something more complex,” said Republican Mike Gallagher, chairman of the special committee on counteracting the Chinese Communist Party. However, he believes that the proposal to increase border control funding with Mexico in exchange for approval of an aid package to Ukraine could be an “obvious compromise.”

Due to the absence of the speaker (voting had not yet begun by the evening of October 17 Moscow time), the House cannot approve the budget for the next fiscal year, including funds for providing military support to Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine. At the same time, everyone receives it through different channels. In 2016, the United States extended a memorandum (first signed in 1999), under which Washington pledged to provide $38 billion in military aid to Israel until 2028. Tel Aviv has received financial support from Washington in various forms since 1948.

Republicans are generally ready to support funding for Israel and Taiwan, but linking these expenses with Ukraine is unlikely to be acceptable to them, says Sergei Sudakov, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences. According to him, the proposal to allocate funds to strengthen the border with Mexico is nothing more than a deceptive trick on the part of the Democrats, who offered several times less money than the Republicans were willing to spend on it.

“There will be money for Ukraine, as well as money for Israel. Most likely, these will be separate packages,” Sudakov believes. He believes that the right wing of the Republicans, before deciding whether to approve aid to Kyiv or not, will request documents explaining the use of money already allocated to Ukraine.

Without the House of Representatives, the aid package cannot be approved, says Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at ISKRAN. “The House of Representatives is primary when it comes to money appropriations,” the expert noted. Proposal to combine three tracks of military assistance [Тайваню, Израилю и Украине] may be a kind of attempt by Biden to force Republicans to vote for the Ukrainian package. “It is quite obvious to hitch this cart to the locomotive of Israeli aid… However, a lot depends on who and, most importantly, when will become the speaker of the House of Representatives,” Vasiliev concluded.

Bargaining within the scope of aid to Israel is possible, says RIAC scientific director Andrei Kortunov. He believes that more pro-Israel Republicans may, in exchange for a promise to support Ukraine, ask Biden to allocate more funds for Tel Aviv. However, the expert believes that the inclusion of military assistance in three areas in the package will complicate the negotiation process between the White House and Democrats on the one hand and Republicans on the other.

As for alternative ways to support Ukraine, Kortunov believes that presidential powers allow Biden to take advantage of funds already allocated but not spent, and he can also persuade some NATO allies to “take on a greater burden.”