The UN expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 2.2% for the year

Russia will become one of several G20 countries whose economic growth rates will increase in 2023. The country’s GDP will increase by 2.2% at the end of the year, according to the annual report United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on trade and development.

“Among the G20 countries, only Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico and the Russian Federation are expected to accelerate economic growth with significant fluctuations,” the report said.

Global economic growth, analysts believe, will slow down from 3% in 2022 to 2.4% at the end of this year, and there are no signs of improved dynamics in 2024 yet. Thus, the European region is already on the verge of recession amid rapid tightening of monetary policy, the report says. The Chinese economy faces weak domestic consumer demand and private investment, but has significant fiscal policy space to address these challenges.

Speaking about the Russian economy, the authors of the report emphasize that the total volume of oil and gas exports from the country has not changed dramatically, but revenues from it decreased in the first half of the year due to lower world prices. The problem has been exacerbated by the weakening ruble, which has limited the country’s ability to purchase foreign goods and manufactured goods.

“Based on all these factors, GDP growth is projected to be 2.2% and 2% in 2023 and 2024, respectively,” the analysts summarize.

Previously, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov statedthat over the next three years the Russian economy will grow at a rate above 2% per year. Siluanov noted that budget policy is being implemented based on “fairly favorable” macroeconomic conditions. At the same time, we need to be prepared for different scenarios, he added. The minister pointed to “economic and financial fragmentation, structural imbalance” and sanctions that Western countries continue to impose on the Russian Federation.

On September 22, during a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that Russian GDP growth in 2023 will be 2.8%, in 2024 – 2.3%. Going forward, the growth forecast is just over 2% per year. At the end of August, Siluanov assumed that the Russian economy would grow by 2.5% or more at the end of the current year.