The traditional school may disappear: scientists have seen four models of the consequences of AI

Teachers will become bots, parents will be unemployed, children will be taught by employers

It has happened: students actively use assistant bots created on the basis of AI; there is even a diploma written by “artificial intelligence.” The question arises: how will education change in the very near future? HSE experts have calculated models of the consequences of digitalization, that is, the global introduction of digital technologies and AI into school life and teaching. They did not agree on a single opinion – they created as many as four possible scenarios, which largely contradict each other.

However, in a solid report by the HSE Institute of Education, the future development options for schools with the arrival of AI are even more diverse. But in the short and medium term, experts see such trends. Option number 1 – denationalization of schools. The boundaries of education will blur, unified programs will emerge for each subject, but not on a national scale, but internationally. Global educational networks will cover all corners of the planet, including remote and economically undeveloped ones. “The role of hybrid learning will increase” and many professions will completely change, including teaching. This development option assumes that some of the teaching functions will be taken over by personalized electronic assistants based on AI, like Siri or Alice, only better.

Development option number two: the child’s individual educational trajectory will be determined by the parents. And at the pre-professional level – the needs of employers and competencies in the labor market. This path of school development presupposes maximum de-bureaucratization of education (that’s when the paperwork load will decrease, one hopes). The student will be provided with flexible choice by thousands of programs, subject areas and specializations to suit every taste. But, the scientists especially emphasize, this option for educating children “is tied to the level of household income and the competitiveness of individual educational organizations.” That is, just like in pre-digital times, a good teacher is expensive.

The third way is autonomy and a creative approach for the schools themselves. Each is its own lyceum or gymnasium, or even an educational center. The school becomes an “educational hub” and “its own director” in terms of preparing programs and new pedagogical approaches. Those who are more creative than others will win.

And finally, the fourth and most radical scenario in education will not please those who do not want to finish school. Because scientists predict that in the wonderful new digital world with AI, you will probably have to study all your life. “Building a global educational digital infrastructure” in conjunction with AI will not rely on the school with its academic division into classes, on the one hand. Although, we should hope that the 9-year general education will not be abolished. But in general, education will become a personal matter for everyone, a continuous process. And any knowledge can be obtained, bypassing teachers, only using AI.

However, at all stages of the development of technological progress, since the time of the Luddites, people feared that they would be replaced by machines. And technocracy will supplant feelings and art. Let us remember the phrase from “Moscow Doesn’t Believe in Tears”: “There will be nothing, no theater, no cinema, just continuous television.” And none of these predictions came true. Today there are chatbots that can quickly and even almost passably compose a report, write an article or analyze a scientific paper. But they are still very far from perfection.

In the meantime, conspiracy theorists are discussing the danger of turning the world into the “Matrix”, and teachers are joking that they will finally become robots, scientists are identifying the real problems and risks of global digitalization in schools. Social inequality in access to education and use of digital opportunities is most obvious. Still, a high-quality figure presupposes good equipment, technology, high-speed Internet – all this is available in big cities and may not be available in rural areas. Digital support is also relevant for our country under sanctions. As you know, everything is fine with domestic software, our brains work. But electronic “brains” and hardware from domestic manufacturers leave much to be desired.

“Scientists probably know better where the introduction of AI and related electronic platforms for schools will go,” says Nina Viktorova, a mathematics teacher from Moscow. – I can’t say that since January, when chatbots became widespread, we have felt any changes. We now have electronic products for schools, diaries and assignments for subjects of varying degrees of readiness (some often freeze). In our work we ourselves use, for example, program constructors and various, so to speak, accessories. Tests, animated portals… The initial stages of the Olympiads are held in an online format. But the work of a teacher in the classroom has not changed much.

I would really like to see how the bot on the screen will cope with 30 teenagers in puberty. Will they really, at the age of 11-15, consciously study on individual tracks, and no one will stand over them with a pointer? Or, if there are no classes at all, should parents control the learning process? But it is unlikely that they will then be able to work themselves, with such involvement. After all, school is not only about knowledge – it is about socialization, relationships in a team, emotions, communication experience, likes and dislikes. As far as I know, emotional intelligence, as it is fashionable to say now, is in its infancy in artificial intelligence. And speaking of knowledge, knowledge is passed on from person to person. Any non-human intelligence here can only act as an intermediary or be only a help.