The study showed that the world’s population will peak earlier than predicted

A new study has shown that the global “population bomb” may never work as feared. The world population is likely to peak earlier and be lower than expected, with favorable results.

The “population bomb” long feared may not work, according to the authors of a new study that estimates that global population will peak lower and earlier than previously predicted.

According to The Guardian, a study commissioned by the Club of Rome predicts that under current trends, the world’s population will peak at 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, and then decline rapidly. The peak could come even earlier if governments take progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels.

The new forecasts are good news for the global environment. As soon as the population surge is overcome, the pressure on nature and climate should begin to ease, as well as the associated social and political tensions.

But the authors warn that falling birth rates alone will not solve the planet’s environmental problems, which are already serious at the level of 7.8 billion people and are primarily caused by excess consumption by a wealthy minority.

A declining population could also create new challenges, such as a shrinking workforce and increased health care burdens associated with an aging society, as found in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

One of the authors of the report, Ben Callegari, emphasizes that the results are encouraging, but they have one catch: “This gives us reason to believe that the population bomb will not explode, but we still face significant problems from an environmental point of view. We need to put in a lot of effort to deal with the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.”

Previous research has painted a bleaker picture. Last year, the UN estimated that the world’s population would reach 9.7 billion by mid-century and continue to rise for several decades after that.

The new forecast, released on Monday, was made by the Earth4All team, made up of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Sustainability Center and the Norwegian Business School BI. The studies were commissioned by the Club of Rome to follow up their seminal study “The Limits to Growth” over 50 years ago.

The report is based on a new methodology that takes into account the social and economic factors that have a proven impact on fertility, such as higher levels of education, especially for women, and higher incomes. The report outlines two scenarios, depending on the extent to which such a policy is implemented.

In the “usual” case, it is assumed that existing policies will be enough to limit world population growth to less than 9 billion in 2046 and then reduce it to 7.3 billion in 2100. The researchers warn that it is too little too late: “While the scenario does not lead to a clear ecological or complete climate collapse, the likelihood of regional social collapses nonetheless increases over the decades to 2050 as a result of deepening social divisions both within societies and and between them. This risk is especially acute in the most vulnerable, poorly managed and environmentally vulnerable countries.”

In a second, more optimistic scenario—if governments around the world raise taxes on the rich to invest in education, social services, and better equity—it is estimated that the population could peak at 8.5 billion as early as 2040, and then fall by more than a third, to about 6 billion in 2100. By following this path, they foresee significant benefits to human society and the environment by mid-century.

“By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions will be about 90% lower than they were in 2020 and continue to decline,” the report says. – Remaining greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes are increasingly removed through carbon capture and storage. As the century progresses, more carbon is captured than stored, keeping global temperatures below 2°C below pre-industrial levels. Wildlife is gradually recovering and starting to thrive again in many places.”