The strong growth of the Russian economy in annual terms is barely noticeable when measured monthly
[ad_1]
A new portion of macroeconomic statistics from Rosstat for January-February records the rapid growth of economic activity in annual terms and its attenuation in monthly terms, taking into account seasonality. However, analysts note that the accuracy of estimates in the latter case reduces the “leap year” of February 2024, and suggest waiting for the results of the first quarter in order to more accurately determine the current economic dynamics.
The Russian economy continues to grow rapidly on an annual basis (compared to the same period last year). The Ministry of Economy, based on the latest data from Rosstat, appreciated GDP growth in leap February 2024 at 7.7% (after 4.6% in January). Meanwhile, excluding seasonality (the ministry does not indicate whether the calendar was also adjusted), the economy practically did not grow in February compared to January – the department recorded stagnation at a level of plus 0.2%.
Analysts at Bloomberg Economics find annual GDP growth of even 8.7% in February, but note that monthly estimates are volatile and the three-month average grew by 6.1%.
According to their calculations, the largest positive contribution to the annual change in the indicator was made by industry (2.8 percentage points, p.p.), wholesale (1.8 p.p.) and retail (0.7 p.p.) trade, and also an additional working day in February.
According to Rosstat, in annual terms, all the main indicators characterizing demand and output in the economy continued to grow rapidly in February. Industry – by 8.5% (in general, the sector, however, has not been growing month-on-month for six months now, see “Kommersant” dated April 1), construction volumes – by 5.1%, wholesale trade – by 19.8%, retail – by 9.1%, real wages – by 8.5%. Agriculture (0.5%) and the volume of cargo turnover (4.1%) turned positive (in annual terms) after a contraction in January.
Calculations by the Ministry of Economy, as well as preliminary conclusions of the Bank of Russia, indicate rapid growth in private consumption within the year. According to the department, the total real turnover of retail trade, public catering and paid services to the population in February in annual terms increased by 10.6% (in January – by 8%), and in February, taking into account seasonality, it increased by 0.6%. Meanwhile, analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TSMAKP) believe that the total consumption of goods, services and public catering in February (as in January), taking into account seasonality and the calendar, stagnated at minus 0.2%. At the same time, their estimates of the dynamics of the indicator in annual terms are close to the ministry’s estimates (10.8%). Moreover, TsMAKP’s estimates of the increase in real wages, taking into account seasonality and the calendar, for January are minus 1.6%, even in the context of an increase in the minimum wage against the backdrop of a sharp jump in the indicator in December 2023. “The January growth in real wages was not high – a deviation from the trend (to January 1999, taking into account seasonality.— “Kommersant”) fell to 3% from 8% in December 2023,” Bloomberg Economics also records.
Against this background, the unemployment rate in February set another historical record – 2.8%. Acting General Director of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor Vladimir Smirnov notes that the situation on the labor market remains favorable for job seekers.
“Employers are increasing salary offers to retain qualified employees,” says the expert.
Although in March the industry showed the first signs of a cooling of the “wage race” and hiring (see “Kommersant” dated April 3), Igor Polyakov from TsMAKP is convinced that the demand for qualified labor will continue to push wages up. However, against the background of growing savings activity of the population, this does not guarantee an acceleration in the pace of current consumption, especially against the backdrop of a decrease in the availability of high-quality non-food products. “Retail trade data for February suggests that the contribution of demand to non-food inflation was almost zero,” Bloomberg Economics noted.
Analysts agree that the leap in February can greatly distort both the picture of economic activity and the interpretation of its dynamics, and suggest waiting until the end of the quarter for more accurate estimates.
[ad_2]
Source link