The ruble is getting stronger, and prices are rising

The exchange rate of the dollar and the euro against the ruble continues to fall, and the prices of food and other products, even according to official data from Rosstat, continue to grow inexorably.

The question of what explains this seemingly incredible, but quite obvious process, was answered by the participants of the press conference at the OSN – a member of the Presidium of the Stolypin Club, economist Vladislav Zhukovsky and economist, manager of the Management Development Group Strategic Management Fund Dmitry Potapenko.

As Vladislav Zhukovsky noted, despite the fact that the observed picture is perplexing for most Russians, everything looks “beautiful” and safe in the Rosstat reports:

“For all three summer months, there was supposedly deflation in Russia: that is, inflation was fading, and the rate of price growth was fading. Annual inflation fell from 18% to below 14%… Judging by the reports, our unemployment rate is record low (below 4%), and we are struggling with poverty. That is, there is a crisis in the country, but the number of Russians below the poverty line has decreased (from 21 million at the beginning of the year to 17 million in June). That is, the Russians lived well, but for some reason they did not notice this…”.

In part, such unobservation of Russians, according to Vladislav Zhukovsky, is explained by the fact that real inflation is much higher: somewhere around 30-40%, and in some places (in areas where import dependence is higher) even more. And when compensation for pensions and benefits is 10%, it “hurts”, as Comrade Gotsman said in the famous film …

In addition, according to Vladislav Zhukovsky, even now (at the exchange rate of 55-58 rubles per dollar, which is virtual in nature, because it is impossible to buy currency on it in the banking network), foreign trade transactions are taking place at a rate of about 70 rubles per dollar , and this, of course, is also included in the prices of goods that fall on store shelves:

“If by the end of this year and the beginning of the next we see a devaluation of the ruble by 72-75 rubles per dollar, and this is precisely the rate laid down now in the draft budget for the coming years, we can assume that further foreign economic transactions will take place at the rate of 90-100 rubles per dollar. dollar, respectively, inflation will be higher. Therefore, I would say that the respite that we saw in the economy and the era of “beautiful numbers” of Rosstat are coming to an end.”

As explained by the second participant of the press conference, economist Dmitry Potapenko, now the growth of consumer prices is not affected by the exchange rate, but by the logistics that have become more complicated due to sanctions for the delivery of goods, components and ingredients from abroad:

“When you take on a store shelf, say, some foreign shampoo that costs $10 abroad, then here it will cost $15, and not because there are some mythological speculators who want to “weld”, but simply from -for the fact that if earlier he went here from the factory directly, now he goes from the manufacturing plant to us in a roundabout way. In addition, those factories that foreign companies have placed here have exactly the same situation: they are under an embargo on the supply of all raw materials and materials. Because of this, they have to deliver raw materials to the Russian Federation also in a roundabout way, which is why even the goods produced here also become more expensive.”

If we talk about the exchange rate of the national currency, then, according to Dmitry Potapenko, not only ordinary citizens, but also state institutions do not receive any benefit from the fact that the ruble continues to strengthen:

“For everyone (both for the Ministry of Finance and for the Central Bank), such a high exchange rate of the ruble is quite problematic, since the higher the ruble exchange rate, the less the budget is filled. (…) There are only two measures that will make it possible to adjust the ruble exchange rate to more or less acceptable for the budget: this is either the path of administration that the Central Bank is now following, or printing money.

So, in the foreseeable future, according to the forecasts of both economists, the excessively strengthened ruble will inevitably weaken, against the background of which consumer prices will continue their, even more inevitable, further growth …

Sergei Ishkov.

Kirill Zykov / Moskva Agency