The probability of complete replacement of people by artificial intelligence by 2116 is estimated

Artificial intelligence experts say there is a 50/50 chance that machines will take over all our jobs within a century, reports the Daily Mail.

A survey of more than 2,700 researchers suggests that artificial intelligence could be “better and cheaper” than humans in all professions by 2116 – almost 50 years earlier than the same forecast suggested last year.

Goldman Sachs predicts that up to 300 million jobs are already at risk worldwide, the Daily Mail notes.

The “2023 Artificial Intelligence Progress Expert Survey” was conducted by six scientists from the University of Oxford and institutes in the US and Germany.

Participants were shown a list of tasks, from folding laundry to writing hit songs, to Taylor Swift, and asked how long it would be before artificial intelligence could do these tasks better and cheaper.

Experts have suggested that artificial intelligence has at least a 50 percent chance of completing most tasks within a decade, with more complex tasks such as installing electrical wiring in a home taking longer.

By 2116, they say, there is a 50% chance that AI will excel in everything from truck drivers to surgeons.

However, the World Economic Forum predicts that AI will create 12 million more jobs than it replaces over the next few years.

And many tech experts don’t seem too worried about AI replacing humans in the workplace any time soon. “AI can certainly recognize your pet cat, but it won’t solve world hunger,” Theo Omtzigt, CTO of Lemurian Labs, tells CNBC.

One of the reasons why AI probably won’t replace humans entirely is both quite simple and complex: mathematics. Large language models, a subset of generative AI, rely on powerful mathematical formulas to process and identify patterns in massive amounts of data to transform user queries into new text, image, video or audio output. But human intelligence goes far beyond pattern recognition. That’s why the mathematical models underlying today’s generative AI systems are “relatively super simple,” says Omtzigt.

“Right now the machine is learning to recognize a cat and what it will look like in different lighting,” he says. “We would have to advance much further in our understanding of creative thinking, ethics and consciousness before we would have the building blocks to think about how to create AI that could destroy humanity.”

Another reason why tech experts don’t believe artificial intelligence will replace humans is that it acquires knowledge differently than humans.

“Generative AI and machine learning techniques rely heavily on correlation as opposed to causation,” said Justin Lewis, BP’s vice president of incubation and engineering, during a panel discussion at AI Summit New York 2023.

After processing many rain images, the AI ​​model can learn to correlate rain with clouds because every rain image has clouds. However, a person learns that clouds cause rain, says James Brousseau, a philosophy professor at Pace University who also teaches the ethics of artificial intelligence at the University of Trento in Italy.

“AI and humans are both producers of knowledge, just as a sculptor and a painter are both artists,” he told CNBC. – But, in my opinion, they will always be different and separated. One will never be better than the other as much as they are simply different.”

Fears that AI will replace humans are not entirely unfounded, but the systems themselves will not take over. “There will definitely be a difference between those who use AI and those who don’t,” says Trevor Beck, chief product officer at Speechmatics.

“If you’re not using artificial intelligence, you’re going to have a tough time as most roles will use some form of artificial intelligence in what they do,” he said.

For example, many tech experts now view AI as a tool to help people become more productive. A software engineer can use AI to speed up the code review process and identify potential errors that he or another person may have missed.

Since AI doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon, one of the best ways to overcome fears that it will be replaced by IT is to learn how these systems work and how they can help you, Brousseau notes.

“Curiosity is good,” he says. “You have to say, ‘I’m not afraid of what the machine can do to me. I’m interested in what it can do for me.’