The prerequisites for the upcoming rise in price of pork have been named: it can become a product for the rich

The rise in meat prices in recent months has become a real disaster for the domestic food market. And if vegetables, say, periodically become cheaper seasonally, then meat prices are stubbornly rising. But it is meat products that Russians watch especially closely and react painfully to any fluctuation in price. After all, it is pork and chicken that, in fact, are still affordable for our fellow citizens. Red meat – beef and lamb – has long become exotic. Meanwhile, the Association of Peasants and Farmers of Russia (AKKOR) announced an impending sharp rise in the price of pork, by 10-20 percent. It seems that soon this meat will also become unavailable to the mass consumer.

According to the head of the Krasnodar branch of AKKOR, Alexander Shipulin, the situation is serious, prices for pork will definitely rise.

Generally speaking, there was a sharp jump in prices for this product in Moscow a month and a half ago. Then the ham (and other parts of the pork carcass) rose in price by an average of 100 rubles per kilogram. The same ham today costs 330-350 re, and was 250. Now Russians are again being warned about a rise in prices – by 10-20%

But just 3-4 years ago, of all types of meat, pork was probably the most affordable, literally equal in cost to chicken. Although economists argue that this is fundamentally wrong: it should initially be 1.5 times more expensive in terms of costs. And it is more difficult to grow, and it grows slower; this is not a broiler for you. Nevertheless, prices for pork pleased buyers for a long time, remained at the same level, and sometimes even decreased.

Now this “tale of piglets” seems to be coming to an end. If pork prices still rise by 10-20% (as producers predict), it will reach the same price as beef. And then for most households it will only be for big holidays, like the New Year’s turkey.

So where does the growth come from? Most likely, it is not a matter of rising electricity tariffs or the cost of feed, which accounts for 70% of the cost. Grain for feed, with our record yields, costs a penny. What then?

Experts name three reasons. African swine fever virus, a reduction in livestock and favorable export prices that are higher than domestic ones, which forces producers to reduce their supplies to stores and ship products abroad.

According to Rosstat, at the end of April this year in Russia, the pig population increased by 5.4% compared to the same period last year. And it amounted to almost 28 million heads. That is, there is no reduction. And who would voluntarily reduce profitable production?

As for the mass pestilence due to African swine fever, we must take into account that today only large farms are engaged in pig farming, where strict veterinary control over animals has been established. Farmers and private farms are strictly prohibited from keeping piglets. They do not have such veterinary medicine and drugs to carry out daily supervision of pigs. An ASF outbreak on private farms can easily spread to a large agricultural holding, in which case thousands of heads will have to be destroyed…

In general, private owners, as a rule, do not keep pigs.

Well, one should not be surprised at the increased export of pork abroad. After all, we want to work like in Russia, and live like in Europe. And there prices for agricultural products for our producers are much higher. So, as in the case of diesel fuel, the hams went to foreign stores.

According to some AKKOR analysts, prices will rise because the government has limited the export of pork abroad. Manufacturers who want to get a margin have decided to take their profits from the domestic market, that is, from the Russian buyer. That’s the whole secret of the price increase.

“In addition,” the Association added, “a tense situation is developing with African swine fever.” It is possible that manufacturers are already factoring the risks of possible future losses from ASF into the final cost of the product.

We ask Igor Abakumov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, host of the “Rural Hour” program, about the factors behind rising prices for this type of meat.

“Under the guise of fighting African swine fever, small and medium-sized producers, who produced more than 30% of pork and were a certain competitor to large businesses, were driven out of the market,” he says. – Allegedly, small farms are breeding grounds and carriers of swine fever. This is complete nonsense. Literally this same week, an ASF outbreak hit the largest enterprise in the Krasnodar Territory – the Veselkovsky agricultural complex. The place where the livestock was exterminated has already been lined with car tires and the carcasses are being disposed of. It is necessary to give the green light to the development of pig farming on farms and private farms, as was the case before. Then we will not depend on the monopoly of large producers. There will be renewed competition in pork production and prices will begin to fall.