The possibility of a big war between Iran and Israel: experts assessed the risk

On the night of January 29, an Iranian drone factory in Tabriz, a military enterprise in Isfahan and an ammunition depot in Mallard were hit. No one claimed responsibility for the attack, including Israel. Although the American media hastened to announce the “Israeli trace”. Tehran has not yet formally accused anyone.

It’s no secret that Iran and Israel can hardly tolerate each other. So, the other day, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog called on the European Union to fight the forces of darkness in the person of Iran. The Duke called Tehran a force of evil, since Iran not only publicly calls for the complete destruction of Israel, but also allegedly “kills its own fellow citizens who demand freedom and human and civil rights.”

According to military expert Yuri Lyamin, the conflict between Iran and Israel, mediated by the United States, has been going on for many years with varying degrees of intensity.

– This conflict is either smoldering or flaring up, – the expert believes. – However, the war of special services is constantly going on, and attempts at attacks and sabotage occur regularly. At the same time, all parties are trying not to bring the situation to the state of a big war. A big war can cause enormous damage to all parties, and everyone understands this very well.

Yuri Lyamin said that the conflicting parties have fundamentally different weapons. Iran’s forte is drones and ballistic missiles.

“Iran has a huge arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, with the power of which it can inflict a very heavy blow on Israel and American bases in the Middle East,” Yuri Lyamin said. – Accordingly, the United States and Israel have powerful aircraft, the Americans also have a fleet. They can also deal a strong blow to Iran.

There is an understanding on both sides of the seriousness of the situation, so the game is on the verge of a foul, but no one is trying not to cross the “red line” …

In addition, we must not forget that Iran is located near the Strait of Hormuz, and in fact the Iranian armed forces can cut off all oil supplies from the region. This is also an important factor, and it is taken into account and feared in the West. This factor is holding back the US from a major war and aggressive measures against Iran.

According to Yuri Lyamin, Iran’s strategy is precisely in inflicting retaliatory and very painful blows on the enemy.

“Iran’s main strategy is to strike back hard,” he said. – Roughly speaking, his defense is in attack. Therefore, his main investments were in drones and missiles, so that everyone would remember that in the event of a strike, Iran could cause very painful damage, and therefore they were afraid to unleash a big war. But the fact is that the conflict at any moment can go into an uncontrollable phase, and then a chain reaction will begin, when the parties can no longer help but retreat.

If it comes to a big war, the expert is sure, the situation in the region will be completely different. If the conflict remains at the level of pinpoint strikes and sabotage, nothing threatens cooperation between Iran and Russia.

– Exchanges of “pricks” between Iran and Israel will not fundamentally affect Iran’s cooperation with Russia. And if it comes to a big war, then all sides will have so many problems that it will be bad for everyone.

According to orientalist and political scientist Elena Suponina, this conflict is connected with the Iranian nuclear program and the development of ballistic missiles by Tehran.

“Negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program have stalled and it is very difficult to revive the agreement that was signed in 2015, including with the participation of Russia,” the expert said. – The Americans bear the blame and responsibility for this. Even under Donald Trump, the United States withdrew from the “comprehensive agreement”, but with the presentation of Joe Biden, it was promised that this document would be revived again. However, this did not happen.

The position of Israel, which has always criticized this agreement, also played a significant role. But in the first place, the responsibility for this is still borne by the Americans. Given that there is no agreement that would regulate issues related to the Iranian nuclear program, the Israelis seized on this pretext, and now they are increasingly saying that they will solve this problem by military means.

According to Elena Suponina, until some time the Israelis acted by pinpoint methods. Nevertheless, it is difficult to call them legal.

“These are methods that are not consistent with international legality, yet the Israelis put them into practice with regularity,” she said. – This is the murder of Iranian nuclear scientists and various special operations around Iranian nuclear facilities, when, in particular, a virus was introduced into the computer software system of one of such enterprises. And now we are seeing drone strikes on Iranian sites that produce ballistic missiles.

According to the orientalist-political scientist, the big conflict that is brewing is not beneficial to either side. Nevertheless, it can escalate into a big war.

– It is unprofitable for Iran. The Israelis understand that they do not have enough military capacity to successfully withstand such a conflict. We need active support from the United States, and they are not very ready to get involved in a new hot war in this region. Most likely, such pinpoint operations will continue. But they are provoking Tehran to retaliate. The powder keg has been ready for a long time, so it is impossible to rule out that the wick brought up can blow it up.

Russia, the expert is sure, in this case will have to act as an “effective intermediary.” Most likely, the leadership of our country will have to take a balanced position.

– Directly what is happening with the events in Ukraine is not connected, – said Suponina. – But it is necessary to remember that the Ukrainians have been courting the Israelis lately and asking them directly for the supply of weapons.

The Americans are also putting pressure on Israel on this issue. Another thing is that the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understands the importance of relations with Russia and will not take any risks. He takes into account the importance of bilateral cooperation and his good relations with President Putin.

However, Iran is now in a difficult situation and will expect more help from Russia. Judging by the experience of recent years, Moscow usually takes a balanced position, does not want to quarrel with Israel, while at the same time seeking to develop relations with Iran. Apparently, this policy will continue in the near future. The best thing Moscow can do is act as an effective mediator so that a new conflict does not flare up in the region.