The people did not listen to Wagner

The level of support for the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, which had previously been steadily growing against the background of the successes of the Wagnerites during the special military operation (SVO), has more than halved. This follows from the data of the Russian Field company, which summed up the first sociological results of the June attempted rebellion. 69% of respondents are sure that PMCs did not have a chance to make a successful coup from the very beginning. In general, the vast majority of respondents are satisfied with how the conflict was resolved.

After the events of June 23–24, public support for Yevgeny Prigozhin dropped sharply, according to polls conducted by the Russian Field research group before and after the military mutiny. If before June 24, the activities of the founder of PMC “Wagner” during the SVO were positively assessed by 55% of respondents, then a few days later the level of his support decreased to 29%, and the proportion of dissatisfied increased from 14% to 39%. Two studies were conducted by telephone survey on June 16–19 (according to a representative all-Russian sample among 1604 respondents) and June 26–30 (1599 respondents).

Measure the level of public approval of the activities of Mr. Prigozhin during the SVO in the Russian Field began in February of this year. By June 2023, it had grown from 41% to 55%, while the proportion of those who did not know about its activities had decreased from 31% to 17%. By mid-June, the highest level of support for the businessman was recorded among men aged 45-59, who get information about SVO from Telegram channels, and also consider the special operation a success and insist on its continuation. A negative assessment was more often given by those who considered the NWO to be unsuccessful and would welcome the transition to peace negotiations.

However, after the rebellion, the situation changed dramatically: now only 29% of respondents declare a positive attitude towards Yevgeny Prigozhin, 39% – negative (with 7% who do not know about him and 25% who found it difficult or refused to answer). This result was achieved primarily thanks to television: among those for whom it is the main source of information, only 20% have a positive attitude towards Mr. Prigogine, and 52% have a negative attitude. Among those who prefer Telegram channels, the supporters of the businessman still prevail (40% vs. 32%), while online media readers are divided approximately equally.

42% of respondents believe that Russian society did not support the actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin during the rebellion, 21% hold the opposite point of view, 14% believe that people remained indifferent to this, and 22% found it difficult to answer. At the same time, if earlier in the conflict between a businessman and the Ministry of Defense, the relative majority (45%) was on the side of the first and only 12% leaned towards the position of the Ministry of Defense, now 41% of respondents are closer to the position of the Ministry of Defense and only 20% remained on the side of the head of Wagner. Most obviously, the support of the Ministry of Defense prevails among TV viewers (63% vs. 8%). Among the readers of Telegram channels, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s supporters are in a small majority (31% versus 28%). The Wagnerites did not have a chance to make a military coup, 69% of the respondents are sure against 20% who allowed such a possibility.

Almost three-quarters of respondents (72%) are satisfied with the way the conflict was resolved, 12% are dissatisfied, 15% found it difficult to answer. The level of satisfaction is again higher among TV viewers (82%), and dissatisfaction is more often expressed by readers of Telegram channels (16%). Moreover, mostly those who are dissatisfied complain that Yevgeny Prigozhin was not held accountable (21% of those dissatisfied with the results). The Russians approved of the assistance of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in resolving the conflict: 58% believe that the mediation of foreign leaders in such situations is quite acceptable.

According to the results of the June events, two-thirds of the respondents (67%) have not changed their attitude towards President Vladimir Putin, the authors of the study conclude. Another 17% began to treat the head of state better, and 12% – worse. After the events of June 24, 33% began to treat Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu worse, 5% better; 53% did not change their attitude towards the head of the military department.

Anastasia Kornya