The Ministry of Finance expects a budget deficit in the range of 1.4–1.5 trillion rubles. at the end of the year

The budget deficit in 2024 will be planned – the figure is expected to be 1.4–1.5 trillion rubles. About this in an interview “Interfax” said the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov. According to the budget law, this year the deficit should be 1.595 trillion rubles, or 0.9% of GDP.

The Minister of Finance noted that one of the factors for the high level of deficit at the beginning of 2023 was advances. According to him, advances are now more streamlined. “An advance of more than 30% requires justification. Control over such advances is necessary. This is the task of both the Ministry of Finance and industry departments. If the money is in the account and not used, then this is an ineffective use of it,” explained Anton Siluanov. The level of advances of expenses in January of this year was minimal. “In February-March, spending became more active, but in general the situation is planned, without surges,” the minister added.

The Ministry of Finance does not yet see any risks to fulfilling the income plan (according to the plan, just over 35 trillion rubles at the end of the year). The absence of significant risks in terms of income can be judged by the dynamics of macroeconomic parameters and the first results of budget execution in terms of income, the head of the Ministry of Finance noted. The budget law provides for an increase in revenues of 5.9 trillion rubles, or 20%, mainly due to oil and gas revenues (+2.7 trillion rubles). According to the minister, risks in terms of oil and gas revenues can be smoothed out by the budget rule.

Despite the strengthening of secondary sanctions during 2023, the Ministry of Finance expects the planned flow of oil and gas revenues. “We are coordinating oil production and export volumes with OPEC countries,” the minister noted. He emphasized that exporters have managed to establish supply chains, and oil price levels, even taking into account discounts, allow them to fulfill income plans.

In March, the federal budget returned to surplus after three months of deficits. In January-February, advanced contracting and advance payments led to an increase in the budget deficit to almost 1.474 trillion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP. In March there was a large surplus of 867 billion rubles. reduced the deficit accumulated in the first quarter by more than half, to 607 billion rubles, or 0.3% of GDP.

Read more about budget execution in the material “The surplus is calculated in the spring”.

Anastasia Larina