The military of Mali and Burkina Faso warn against military intervention in Niger

The military leadership of Mali and Burkina Faso, where the Russian PMC Wagner operates, warned that military intervention against neighboring Niger, where a military coup took place on July 26, would be tantamount to a declaration of war on these countries, according to a joint statement by representatives of the two states, published in on the night of August 1 on the page of the representative of Mali, Colonel Abdoulaye Maigi, on Twitter. The statement comes after the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS; it includes 15 states of the region) threatened to use military force against the military in Niger on July 30 if they do not restore civilian authorities within a week.

Members of the organization have already imposed economic sanctions against Niger: a transport blockade, the freezing of the country’s assets in a regional bank and the cessation of energy operations. Suspended financial assistance to Niger authorities of the United States, France and the EU. “The representatives of the transitional governments in Mali and Burkina Faso express fraternal solidarity with the people of Niger, who have decided to take the fate of the country into their own hands with full responsibility,” the military of Mali and Burkina Faso said in response to this on the night of August 1. They also threatened to withdraw from ECOWAS in case of military intervention.

A little later, Guinea expressed support for the new authorities in Niger. The republic’s chief of defense staff, General Ibrahim Sori Bangur, said that “the new authorities in Niamey will make every effort to guarantee harmony in the country and sub-region.” According to him, economic restrictions and military intervention will not resolve the domestic political crisis, but could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, the consequences of which could go beyond the borders of Niger.

The demonstration of solidarity between the three republics by the military in Niger is caused by the desire of their authorities to assert their own legitimacy at home, said Nikolai Shcherbakov, senior researcher at the Center for African Studies at the Institute of World History of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “For them, this is a manifestation of some kind of African international, a way to earn a reputation as strong leaders who are ready to go against international dictates,” the expert noted. Shcherbakov recalled that in all these countries, the change of power occurred as a result of the displacement of civilian governments by the military, after which the membership of Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea in ECOWAS was suspended. The current chairman of the transitional government in Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita, came to power through a military coup in 2020; the head of government in neighboring Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, ousted the head of the junta, Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, eight months after the first coup in 2022. The army in Guinea has been in power since 2021, after the arrest of President Alpha Condé.

On July 31, rebels in Niger accused Paris of preparing a military operation to free ousted President Mohamed Bazum. The French Foreign Ministry denies the Africans’ accusations. The next day, amid an attack on French diplomatic offices in Niamey, Paris announced the evacuation of up to 1,200 of its citizens from Niger. Italy also announced the repatriation of its compatriots, and late in the evening on August 1, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell announced the evacuation of any citizens of the EU countries. The French Foreign Ministry and other states condemned the coup. Russia called the change of power “an anti-constitutional undertaking”, but the founder of the Russian PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin called the event “the result of the long overdue liberation of the republic from the colonialists”, offering help to the rebels in Niger.

The new Niger authorities have suspended the export of uranium and gold to France. But on Aug. 1, Le Monde reported that French mining company Orano had continued to mine uranium and was in touch with company employees in Niger. The country is the 7th largest producer of uranium in the world and provides up to 17% of the raw materials used by the French for energy production. Niger is an important ally of the West in curbing illegal migration and Islamist groups. To combat them, the largest French air base in the region, units of Germany, Italy and the United States are deployed in Niamey.

In the crisis around Niger, France and interested African states are relying on diplomacy, not force, Shcherbakov believes. According to him, the economic and political interests of not only France are tied to Niger, but also Nigeria (the most influential country in ECOWAS), which is interested in building a trans-Saharan pipeline through the republic in order to quickly export hydrocarbons to the EU. “Military intervention destabilizes the situation, no one wants to cut it off the shoulder and turn the country into a weak link in the fight against terrorism,” the expert believes. On the other hand, Shcherbakov continues, the interim administration of Niamey did not close the ousted president’s channels of communication with the outside world, which shows Niger’s openness to dialogue.

Paris will not take active steps to return Bazum to power, says Arnaud Dubien, director of the French-Russian analytical center Observo. According to him, the events in Niger have intensified public debate in France about maintaining a military presence in this part of Africa. “After the departure of the French soldiers from Mali, a turning point came in the African policy of the Elysee Palace. Many do not understand why the French need this problematic region,” the expert said. According to him, in the future, Paris will withdraw the military from Africa, give security issues to local states and turn its eyes to non-French-speaking countries where there is higher economic potential. In the future, in his opinion, the activation of Islamic terrorism is inevitable in the region. “There is a real risk that the sub-Saharan region will become a black hole,” he concluded.