The expert explained the paradoxes of the growth of industrial production in Russia: what is happening with milk

It seems that our industry is gradually getting used to economic sanctions, logistical and financial hardships. According to Rosstat, in March, the growth of industrial production, compared to the same period last year, amounted to 1.2%. The percentage is small, but for the first time in the past year, a plus, not a minus, has been recorded. And what is especially invigorating is that the locomotive is not the extractive industries, but the processing ones. However, if we consider the situation in individual industries, then some positions seem paradoxical. Especially when it comes to food. So, in the period monitored by statistics, there was less milk in the country, and more dairy products. What does it mean?

In March this year, industrial production increased by 1.2% compared to March 2022. This is much better than analysts expected, who had forecast a 1.4% decline in production in annual terms.

The driver of growth this time was not our traditional leaders – the extractive industries, but the processing industries. They added 6.3% in March 2022. And, for example, the production of finished metal products increased by 30%, the production of computers, electronics and optics added 22.5%, the production of electrical equipment grew by 21.5%…

Among the industries that have shown a backlog are woodworking, the production of medicines and vehicles. In total, 11 industries were included in the “black list”, including the extraction of metal ores and coal. Yes, mining, the “backbone” of our economy in recent years, did not impress at all, compared to March last year, it sank by 3.6%.

But food production in March increased by 5.5% in annual terms. And if we take only for the first quarter of 2023, then by 4.7%.

We consider: what products we have increased. Meat and meat products of all kinds, from cattle to goat and horse meat.

Production of fish fillets, fresh or chilled, increased by 9.1%, although retail prices for these products in stores are still unaffordable.

In addition, there was more butter and sour cream in retail trade, by 8.6 and 7.1%, respectively.

Against the background of this success of livestock breeders, it seems strange that the production of milk, from which the same butter and sour cream is produced, decreased by 3.4% in March. And for the first quarter of the year it decreased by 2% compared to the first quarter of last year.

But the situation seems strange only at first glance. Last year, farmers milked 800,000 tons more milk than in 2021. And consumption (due to high prices and low purchasing power of the population) decreased by 250 thousand tons. As a result, since the beginning of the year, the purchase prices for milk from peasants have fallen sharply, and there is less milk.

How can such a phenomenon be explained? – we ask the candidate of economic sciences, the host of the program “Rural hour Igor Abakumov. – Less milk, but more dairy products from it?

“We need to look at what butter or sour cream is made of,” he replies. – In our country, oil is considered both that which is made with vegetable additives, and that which is produced with beef fat – which has nothing to do with milk fats. And today, not every laboratory is able to determine the content of beef fat in a 200-gram pack of butter. On the label, the manufacturer writes one thing, but in reality another.

The stalls are filled with dairy products that often do not meet the quality that the buyer expects from them and which are established by medical standards. If today we carry out a complete check of these products, we will see that there is not very much milk fat in it, or maybe not at all.

– Aren’t you exaggerating?

– No, we have only one large company on the market, where the general director is personally responsible for the quality of the goods. And on each label is his phone number, where you can call and make comments.

Many “producers” of milk, as is known from news releases, even the addresses of their enterprises are fictitious. No one knows “where this street is and where this house is.”

– Is the emerging decrease in milk production an alarming symptom?

– Wholesale purchase prices for these products have fallen so sharply that small farmers and private farms have already started slaughtering their livestock. It has become unprofitable to keep a cow, they leave a cow only for themselves, for internal use. Meanwhile, private household plots supply about 30% of the total milk volume to the market.

– And what to expect in the future?

– A sharp decline in production. For small farmers, this is a real problem. Milk is the only source of income. The peasant receives money from a pig once a year, and from milk every day. If he took the cow to the slaughterhouse, then it is not a fact that in the future he will again be engaged in animal husbandry. This is the first. And the second – from a heifer to milking, you need to wait five years. Today, now we are laying a five-year lag in milk production.