The chances of a large asteroid colliding with the Earth in 2046 are estimated

NASA is tracking a recently discovered sizable asteroid that has a “small chance” of colliding with Earth in 2046.

According to NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, a newly discovered asteroid roughly the size of an Olympic pool has a “small chance” of colliding with Earth in 23 years. A potential collision could fall on Valentine’s Day in 2046, according to CNN.

The European Space Agency predicts a 1 in 625 chance of an asteroid colliding with Earth, although NASA’s Sentry system calculated the chance of a collision closer to 1 in 560. The latter system tracks potential collisions with celestial objects.

But the cosmic body, named 2023 DW, is the only object on NASA’s risk list that ranks 1 out of 10 on the Turin Impact Hazard Scale, used to classify an object’s predicted risk of impact with Earth. All other objects are rated 0 points on the Turin scale.

While DW 2023 tops the list, its rating of 1 only means that “the likelihood of a collision is extremely unlikely and is not of public concern or concern,” according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, while a rating of 0 means that “the chance of a collision is zero or so low , which is actually zero.”

“This object is not of particular concern,” says Davide Farnokchia, a navigation engineer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

NASA officials have warned that the likelihood of a collision could change dramatically as more observations of the 2023 DW are collected and more analysis is conducted.

“Often when new objects are discovered for the first time,” noted NASA Asteroid Watch, “it takes several weeks of data collection to reduce uncertainty and adequately predict their orbits for years to come.”

Usually, newly discovered asteroids appear more threatening on first sighting, CNN emphasizes.

“Because orbits defined by very limited sets of observations are more uncertain, such orbits are more likely to ‘tolerate’ future impacts,” the Jet Propulsion Laboratory-based Near-Earth Object Research Center notes on its website.

More often than not, the threat associated with a particular object will decrease as more observations become available.

“However, such early predictions can often be ruled out as we include more observations and reduce the uncertainty in the object’s orbit,” the Center said in a statement. “Most often, the threat associated with a particular object will decrease as more observations become available.”

It could be several days before new data can be collected due to the asteroid’s proximity to the moon, Farnokchia said in an email to CNN. The last full moon was two days ago and it still appears bright and large in the sky, probably hiding 2023 DW from direct observation, he stressed.

“But then the object will remain visible for weeks (even months with large telescopes), so we can get many observations as needed,” the expert added.

According to NASA, the asteroid measures about 50 meters in diameter. As 2023 DW orbits the Sun, it has 10 predicted approaches to Earth, with the closest one likely to occur on February 14, 2046, and nine others between 2047 and 2054.

The space rock was first seen in our skies on February 2nd. It moves at a speed of about 25 kilometers per second.

Farnocchia cited the success of NASA’s DART mission, or dual asteroid redirection test, in September 2022 as evidence that humanity may be ready to confront space objects on potentially catastrophic courses. DART deliberately pushed the spacecraft into an asteroid to change its trajectory.