The Central Bank and Sberbank assessed the inflation rate differently

Sberbank admitted that inflation this year could reach 7%. The company’s updated macro forecast differs markedly from the official position of the Central Bank. Sberbank is confident that the price increase by the end of the year will be at least 5%, but there is a possibility that it will be higher. The Central Bank, in turn, insists that for the first time in five years it will be able to bring inflation to the target of 4%, maximum 4.5%. Kommersant FM’s interlocutors before the last meeting of the board of directors assured that the department would revise the forecast, because with the current dynamics such a result is not achievable.

However, the Central Bank did not abandon its plans. Which one will be right? Leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalya Milchakova believes that there are still risks: “We predict that consumer price inflation this year will be slightly higher than the Central Bank forecast: from 4.5% to 5.5%, on average 5% . The Central Bank insists on a figure of 4-4.5%, but it seems very underestimated. I think that the Central Bank wants to send a signal to the financial markets that it will insist on its goal and persistently pursue it. Therefore, we do not rule out that at the March meeting, if inflation continues to rise, the Central Bank may once again raise the key rate in order to get as close as possible to this target level by the end of the year.

Rising inflation means that employers will have to index wages. There are two most significant pro-inflationary factors. Firstly, the increase in budget spending is not on the social sphere, but on some imported components, including government defense orders. Secondly, lending growth.”

In 2023, lending growth was double-digit in every segment. This year, according to Sberbank, the volume of loans to legal entities will increase by at least 12%, and to individuals – by 4%. The slowdown is largely dictated by rising rates. However, the Central Bank believes that loans will continue to rise in price “under the influence of factors independent of monetary policy.”

This is due to the risks for banks, concludes the chief economist of the consulting company PF-Capital, Evgeniy Nadorshin: “Lending is really on the decline. This is natural at the current level of rates, given that preferential programs have finally been cut. That is, they reduced credit growth at the expense of consumption, this was the main driver of growth last year, the Russian economy simply cannot afford this. This would be accompanied by a very large number of problems, and we could end up with a rather acute crisis.

The fact that the Central Bank has clearly, although perhaps without emphasizing it in the press release, aimed at combating unhealthy lending is correct. The propensity to save is definitely growing. For the Russian economy, this is exactly what is needed, because we no longer have any other resources for investment, especially long-term ones.

Against the backdrop of slowdown in lending processes, naturally, problems with the quality of lending themselves begin to appear. Not too dramatically, but after a while we will begin to see them in much greater quantities than now or a few months ago. Banks are beginning to be more careful about risks. We will see some growth in lending rates, but even if the halt in credit growth and the emphasis on savings leads to a recession in the Russian economy, it will be better than what would threaten us if inadequate, in my understanding, lending continues.”

The head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that current rates “depress lending” and it is worth considering the issue of starting to reduce them as soon as possible. The Central Bank has repeatedly said that it sees room to reduce the key rate in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Finance clarified that we are talking about the fourth quarter.

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Ivan Yakunin