Stress test – Newspaper Kommersant No. 52 (7497) dated 03/28/2023

Despite the general decrease in the level of crime in Russia in 2022, which was mentioned, in particular, at the collegium of the Ministry of Internal Affairs last week, the number of murders and attempted murders increased by 4% in the country for the first time in 20 years. With reference to the official data of the regional judicial departments, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, this is reported in the report of the Travmpunkt lawyer association. One of the reasons for this growth, according to the authors, may be a special military operation: world experience shows that hostilities inevitably affect their direct participants and civilians in the conflict zone. The criminologist, however, notes that there is still not enough sociological data to identify the connection between the increase in the number of murders and SVO, but this phenomenon may be associated with a change in the structure of the population.

The report “Patterns of Increasing Violence in Countries Involved in Armed Conflict” was prepared by lawyers specializing in the defense of victims of violent crime. The authors note that in Russia in 2022, for the first time in 20 years, the number of murders and attempted murders increased. So far, there has been a “steady decline” from 32,265 cases in 2002 to 7,332 in 2021. In 2022, murders and attempted murders increased by 4% – 7628 cases, lawyers refer to the data of the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation.

It should be noted that a week ago, at the collegium of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the department presented data on a decrease in the total number of crimes in the Russian Federation by 1.9% in 2022 compared to the previous year, and the number of serious and especially serious crimes decreased by 4.1%. Crimes against the person decreased by 5.5%. At the same time, the overall decline does not exclude growth in certain categories and in certain regions. The authors of the report, in particular, note a significant increase in the number of murders and attempted murders in regions located near the NVO zone: “In the Belgorod region, the registered number of murders and attempts increased compared to 2021 from 52 to 102, in the Kursk region – from 58 to 89 “. But in a number of regions that are not geographically adjacent to the NVO zone, the researchers found an increase: the number of murders and attempted murders in the Tambov region increased from 26 to 44 over the year, in the Kirov region – from 45 to 62, in Buryatia – from 134 to 177, in Moscow – from 269 to 413.

The authors examine the quantitative data in the context of the experience of countries that have at various times been involved in armed conflicts and, as a result, faced an increase in street, domestic and police violence. It follows from the report that the increase in street and police violence (murders, robberies, cases of grievous bodily harm) in such situations was observed, as a rule, “not during the war, but after it.” In particular, studies have been conducted in the United States demonstrating that police officers who participated in hostilities were more likely to use firearms. In Russia, the level of use of weapons and special equipment by law enforcement officers with combat experience was studied by human rights activist Hasmik Novikova, as well as the authors of the book “Chechnya. Life in the war” (2007). Now the official statistics of bringing the security forces to justice fixes mainly the crimes of the Federal Penitentiary Service against prisoners, and the number of those prosecuted is decreasing, says lawyer Dmitry Gerasimov, co-author of the report: in 2017, 867 people were convicted of torture, in 2021 – 613, and for the first half of 2022 – 206 security officials, “which is 31% less than in the same period last year.” It should be noted that in 2019, the Investigative Committee explained this decrease in the number of cases initiated: for every 44 statements of prisoners about torture by the Federal Penitentiary Service, there was only one criminal case. However, the authors of the report expect to more accurately assess the trends in 2022 after the publication in mid-April of the statistics of the Judicial Department at the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation.

As for domestic violence, according to the authors, it is growing “against the background of the current situation”: “According to the Anna resource center (included in the register of foreign agents), in 2022 the number of women who contacted the domestic violence hotline increased by 5%, in total, the center recorded 61,224 appeals,” lawyer Anastasia Sherdakova, co-author of the report, explained to Kommersant.

The authors explain the increase in the number of murders, attempted murders and manifestations of domestic violence by several factors directly or indirectly related to the military conflict. Thus, they note an increase in alcohol consumption and refer to foreign studies of this phenomenon using the examples of American soldiers who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to Russia, the authors refer to the data of Rosalkogolregulirovanie: retail sales of alcohol with a strength of more than 9% increased in Russia in 2022 by 6.8%, vodka – by 5.9%, and all alcoholic products excluding beer, mead and catering chains – by 3.5% over the previous year. Lawyers note that in 70-80% of murders in Russia are committed while intoxicated.

Advocates also cite post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among combatants and injured civilians as one of the reasons for the increase in violence. Among the manifestations of PTSD associated with the risk of violence against other people are impulsivity, anger, alcohol consumption. The consequences of PTSD can manifest themselves for decades after the war, the authors of a 2016 study on the increase in domestic violence in the United States during the Vietnam War pointed out. Researchers who have worked with the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan note that being in a hot spot itself increases the likelihood of domestic violence and child abuse, regardless of whether the person took up arms. At the same time, the percentage of people with PTSD in these groups sometimes exceeded 20%, which turned out to be twice as high as during the wars in Korea and Vietnam.

As Kommersant previously reported, this year the Ministry of Health for the first time created a working group on organizing medical care for PTSD and developed appropriate clinical recommendations. The interlocutors of Kommersant, in particular from the National Research Center for Psychiatry and Neurology. V. M. Bekhtereva, indicated that the prevalence of PTSD ranges from 2.6% of the total number of the surveyed population to 73–92% in risk groups. Psychic trauma leads to the development of PTSD in about 25–35% of cases; in military personnel who took part in hostilities, the prevalence of PTSD ranges from 3% to 11%; in wounded military personnel, borderline mental disorders develop in at least 30% of cases, and the proportion of PTSD among them reaches 14–17%. In February, a number of regions (for example, the Lipetsk, Ulyanovsk and Voronezh regions, as well as the Republic of Dagestan) announced the construction and imminent opening of rehabilitation centers for participants in the SVO, which are supposed to provide, among other things, psychological assistance to combatants. These measures indicate that “the authorities are seriously assessing the problem,” Anastasia Sherdakova believes. The authors of the report, however, propose to supplement the list of prevention measures with the “development of crisis centers that help victims of domestic violence” and civil control institutions in prisons and military units.

Lawyer, criminologist, former investigator Igor Markelov doubts the relevance of the report’s conclusions: according to him, only full-scale sociological studies can reveal the connection between SVO, the sale of alcoholic products and the growth of certain types of violence. “If there is an increase in crime, it means that there are social prerequisites for this, but it is impossible to say what they are now,” Mr. Markelov points out. As for the increase in the number of murders and attempted murders, it may be associated with the influx of a new population, the criminologist suggests, making a reservation about the lack of comprehensive data: “The population has increased, including due to migrants, refugees from the special operation zone. It is possible that the same steady decline in crime is observed among the population of the Russian Federation as of 2021.”

Maria Starikova