Special purpose plans – Newspaper Kommersant No. 30 (7475) of 02/17/2023

The main intrigue of the 2023 election campaign will be the struggle for the second place after United Russia, and the main platform on which this struggle will unfold is the new regions. This was discussed on Thursday at a round table of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI), dedicated to the strategy and prospects of parties in the upcoming elections. The party members themselves also outlined their plans: as it turned out, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is trying to grope for protest moods, the Liberal Democratic Party is betting on consolidation around the special operation, the Socialist-Revolutionaries are betting on large families, and the New People are betting on the economic policy of the new time.

According to VTsIOM measurements, over the past year, United Russia (ER) has increased its electoral base (an increase of 10 percentage points, p.p.), the Liberal Democratic Party and Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) have retained their positions, but the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and “New People” lost 2 percentage points each, Mikhail Mamonov, head of the political analysis practice at VTsIOM, shared the results of his observations. Most of all, according to him, electoral preferences were influenced by a special military operation (SVO), which gave the effect of “consolidation around the flag” and led to a weakening of the “black points” effect, when citizens begin to focus exclusively on the negative. Now, on the contrary, sociologists saw in society the hope that the difficulties would be overcome. Thus, about 70% of respondents believe that Russian enterprises will be able to replace the departed foreign manufacturers. Sociologists also note a decrease in conflict in society: no more than 12-13% of respondents say they are ready for protests – and this should also affect the results of parties and the proposal that they will make to the voter.

United Russia is doing well thanks to several factors, explained political scientist Pavel Danilin: general support for the SVO, the level of social support in the whole country, the activity of governors, most of which are directly related to the party line. There is no doubt that United Russia will win almost all elections where it is represented, the expert is sure. The main intrigue of the upcoming campaign, in his opinion, is who will be in second place. Other questions include whether the New People can prove to the voter that they are still new; how the LDPR will hold the first elections without Vladimir Zhirinovsky; what will be the positions of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in relation to the SRZP and how the Socialist-Revolutionaries themselves will behave. But the main “battlefield” will be the new regions, Mr. Danilin believes: “The party that shows itself second there will claim the title of “new second” throughout the country.”

State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Stanislav Naumov assured the audience that everything was in order with his party, including with leader Leonid Slutsky, who recently proposed to optimize the political system and unite all parties into one in order to support the SVO. Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s energy industry continues to fuel the Liberal Democratic Party, the deputy said. It’s just that this is the first party that started the transition, but sooner or later everyone will face this, the Liberal Democrat promised. In the meantime, the Liberal Democratic Party is counting on victory in four new regions, considering Viktor Bout, released from an American prison, to be its unique personnel advantage. “We will have the largest faction in every legislative body there,” summed up Mr. Naumov.

Member of the Presidium of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, State Duma deputy Sergei Obukhov does not agree to fight for second place: the Communists, he said, will work against United Russia and intend to give it a serious fight in the legislative elections. As for the gubernatorial campaigns, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation hopes for pinpoint victories, for example, in Altai and the Omsk region. Measurements of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation confirm that in the current “frozen” situation, the United Russia dominates everywhere, Mr. Obukhov agrees: a high level of anxiety in society is now working for the ruling party and consolidation “around the flag.” But no one knows what will happen in a few months, and protest moods still have not gone away, the deputy warned. According to him, the communists have already “felt” a mass protest against the growth of housing and communal services tariffs and a whole scattering of regional problems.

The first deputy head of the SRWP faction in the State Duma, the leader of the Moscow Social Revolutionaries Dmitry Gusev, said that in the upcoming campaign the party intends to rely on traditional values: the chairman of the SRWP, Sergei Mironov, has already proposed to the president to make 2024 “the year of a large family.” In addition, the party’s agenda includes assistance to military personnel and their families, as well as the introduction of a single standard for providing for the mobilized. The same topics should become the main ones in the elections of the mayor of Moscow, to which Mr. Gusev himself will go from SRZP.

State Duma Vice Speaker from the New People, Vladislav Davankov, said that the party is still betting on updating the political landscape and moving towards a new economic policy. Almost all of the party’s candidates are newcomers to politics. The task of the New People is to show good results in all regions, while focusing on supporting the national economy. Small business is a new driver of growth, Mr. Davankov proclaimed, explaining that the number one topic is, of course, SVO, but people are already thinking about how they should live in the future.

Finally, Senator Sergei Perminov, deputy secretary of the United Russia General Council, closing the line of party members, said that United Russia was not lulled by previous successes: “Each campaign for our party is a campaign from scratch. We are the party of a common destiny, together with the country, year after year, step by step, we go through trials.” At the same time, United Russia sets the task for its candidates to win convincingly in the very first round, and the factions of the majority must be formed in each legislative assembly, Mr. Perminov shared his plans.

In turn, political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko noted that the candidates will have to look for new approaches to the voters. If earlier, when the “new sincerity” won the elections, it was enough to show empathy, but now we have entered the “epoch of fear” and the voter’s request has changed: he wants the truth, the expert explained. Now, according to him, “cynical honesty” is more likely to work – it is necessary not only to show empathy, but also to offer a clear plan of action. But depending on the agenda, several levels have developed in society, Mr. Minchenko noted: there is a deep Russia, a warring Russia, a capital Russia, and a Russia that has left. And not a single party will be able to communicate simultaneously with all these levels – at best, you can work with two, Yevgeny Minchenko warned. Most of the parties are guided by the warring and deep Russia, and only the “New People” are trying to talk with the capital, he concluded.

Anastasia Kornya