Space expert told how the Chinese will conquer the moon in the coming years

An exciting competition for who will be the first to set foot on the moon in the 21st century is unfolding between the strongest space agencies in the world. Of the three leading space powers, which, of course, so far includes Russia, China and the United States still have more chances at this time line. First up is the Celestial.

China’s Manned Space Flight Program Administration (CMSA) officially announced on May 29 that it will send its astronauts to the Moon until 2030. And something tells me that the Chinese, who have been very clearly moving forward with their space program lately, will keep their word.

The State Council of the People’s Republic of China approved the national program for the exploration of the Earth-Moon satellite in January 2004. At a time when, as they say, their horse was not yet lying around, Russia began developing the Luna-Glob project to send the automatic station Luna-25 to the surface of the moon. Its numbering indicated that we continue to implement the Soviet lunar program , within the framework of which, in the 60-70s of the last century, vehicles up to Luna-24 inclusive were sent to the Earth’s satellite. That is, until 2005 we had much more experience and opportunities to be on the lunar “path” ahead of the Celestial Empire.

However, after almost two decades, we are still only planning the launch of Luna-25 (according to the latest data, it is expected in July this year) while the Chinese sent five (!) automatic apparatuses “Chang’e” (Moon Fairy from Chinese folklore), not counting the two supporting missions, and four more are planned: “Queqiao-2”, “Chang’e-6”, “Chang’e-7” and “Chang’e-8”.

“All the algorithms and technical means for the manned expedition have already been tested by the Chinese on the Chang’e-5,” explains Igor Lisov, an expert on the development of Russian-Chinese relations in the space field. – The Chinese implemented landing on the Moon from orbit, sampling, return of the lunar module to the circumlunar orbit, docking, soil reloading, sending the flight module to the Earth and returning it to China.

At the beginning of 2024, a Chinese relay satellite will fly to the Moon, and then, in May 2024, the Chang’e-6 apparatus, which should bring soil to Earth from the far side of the Moon. The next missions – the 7th in 2026 and the 8th in 2028 – will actually be steps towards creating a lunar base: landing at the south pole, searching for water, experiments on the use of lunar resources. Together with the first Chinese manned expeditions, they will lay the foundation for the long-term work of people on the moon.

So, the Chinese do everything slowly, but strictly according to plan. By the way, according to our expert, their manned flight to the Moon strongly resembles the American Apollo in its ballistic design, except that CMSA will not have a super-heavy launch vehicle and instead of a single-launch flight scheme, they choose a two-launch one.

– The Chinese understand that in the next 10 years they will not be able to master the “superheavy”, so they proceed from what they can, they will use the Long March-10 launch vehicle with a payload of about 27 tons on the flight path to the Moon (about 70 tons on low Earth orbit), says Lisov. – Since this is not enough for a full lunar complex, it is planned to launch the lunar module to the Moon with the first rocket, the second – a manned spacecraft with a crew of three.

Only once in orbit of the moon, they will dock, after which two astronauts on the lunar module will land on the moon in the region of one of the poles. After working on the surface, this module with people will again launch into a lunar orbit, dock with the returning ship, after which everyone will safely head back to Earth.

According to the expert, 2030 as the year of landing of Chinese taikonauts on the surface of the moon sounds very plausible.

“The Americans developed a scheme with a lunar module in 1962 and seven years later they implemented a landing on the moon,” says Lisov. – Why don’t the Chinese repeat it 60 years later, and on the best electronics, relying on richer experience than the Americans had in 1962? The only question is which of them will land on the moon earlier in the 21st century.

Unlike the Chinese, who, under the leadership of an irremovable communist pariah, are stubbornly moving forward and only forward, the United States constantly postpones the landing. If Trump, as president of the United States, demanded a “return” to the moon in 2024, the current one sets the task of doing this in 2025.

“The Americans have a spacecraft for the flight, which has already circled the Moon without astronauts, in automatic mode in December last year, but they do not have a landing module,” Igor Lisov assesses the capabilities of overseas “partners”. – Preference in creating a device for landing people on the moon, as we know, was given to Elon Musk. For this, he is developing his own Starship ship, which will launch, land on the moon and return to Earth unchanged.

The use of Starship is planned for the Artemis-3 and Artemis-4 missions of the American lunar program. However, while things are not going uphill for this steel colossus, Musk managed to demonstrate only a start from the Earth and one landing of the upper stage for several attempts. If he still fails to prove the flawlessness of the entire ship for human flight by 2025, the bet can be placed on the lander of competitor Blue Origin company Jeff Bezos, who promises to bring his Blue Moon to mind just in time for 2029. As they say, we stock up on popcorn and follow the confrontation between two strong powers.

To be honest, I would have watched this action with even greater interest if our country also took part in the lunar race of the 21st century. But, alas, the future of our lunar exploration program is much more elusive.

By the way, by 2030, when the Chinese planned to land their first lunar explorers, they would not mind uniting with Russia in creating the International Scientific Lunar Station (at least there is an agreement on this with Roskosmos). Our apparatus “Luna-28” can successfully fit into this program. But, as you understand, the likelihood of implementing this agreement will increase significantly if Luna-25, which should launch in 2023, as well as from Luna-26 and Luna-27, is successful …

Can you imagine how far we could have stepped forward if we had not stopped our lunar program in the seventies of the last century, looking at the Americans? After their Apollo-17 mission, they decided that flights to the Moon were unpromising, and we, following them, made such a decision for ourselves, forgetting where our design geniuses Sergei Pavlovich Korolev and Georgy Nikolaevich Babakin led us.

According to space industry veterans, we once relied entirely on the notorious market economy and the all-encompassing “love” for the West. As a result, technology was lost and the industry collapsed. Now the same Americans have gathered and are trying not to let the dark horse, China, go ahead, while we are trailing behind. Isn’t it time to draw the appropriate conclusions and in the future not to allow such carelessness – to allow someone to think for us?