Serious consequences of Russia’s ban on Ecuadorian bananas and cloves are named

On Saturday, Rosselkhoznadzor announced an import ban on five Ecuadorian banana companies, alleging that previous shipments of the fruit had contained a dangerous fly that poses a risk of contaminating a wide range of products and is a known carrier of a number of diseases.

Ecuador is the world’s leading exporter of bananas, with sales of about $3.5 billion in 2022—about a tenth of all Ecuadorian exports that year

About a fifth of its annual sales come from Russia, notes the Associated Press. Reportedly, Ecuadorian bananas account for 96% of all banana imports into the Russian Federation.

Moscow’s decision to ban imports of certain types of bananas comes after President Daniel Noboa announced in January that Ecuador would transfer several tons of old Russian-made military equipment to the United States. In his defense, President Noboa argued that the equipment was no longer fit for purpose and described it as “scrap metal” that would be replaced with new equipment needed to fight the drug gangs terrorizing the country.

Recall that in January – after the crime boss known as “Fito” escaped from prison, followed by riots in several penitentiaries – Ecuador became a real battleground of the war between criminal gangs and the government. The situation escalated so much that President Noboa not only declared a state of emergency and a curfew, but was forced to issue an executive order designating nearly two dozen gangs as terrorist groups and authorizing the Ecuadorian military to “neutralize” the criminal groups “within the framework of international humanitarian law.” And by the way, in the commentary of the Russian Foreign Ministry on the occasion of these dramatic events it was said: “We express solidarity with the government and people of Ecuador, who are faced with a sharp intensification of the activities of criminal structures aimed at destabilizing the internal political situation.”

Now the Russian diplomatic department has criticized the decision of the official Quito, saying that it violates the contract, which stipulated that Ecuador cannot sell equipment to third parties without Russia’s consent.

Former Ecuadorian Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Estarellas, commenting on Russia’s ban on the import of certain types of bananas, believes that this may be a response to the decision to send old military equipment to the United States: “I would like to hope that this impasse can be resolved through diplomatic negotiations.”

Richard Salazar, director of one of Ecuador’s main banana exporting associations, said he was “surprised” by Russia’s “radical” decision, although he added that at least 15 companies continue to export bananas to Russia. “This is a very important market for us,” he admitted, “and a market that would be difficult to replace.”

In addition to the partial ban on the import of bananas, Rosselkhoznadzor also imposed a ban on the import of Ecuadorian carnations imported into Russia through the European Union. This ban comes into force on February 9 in response to the discovery of a pest in flowers that can lead to complete loss of crops.

Ecuador’s flower business is also closely tied to Russia – while the Latin American country’s flower industry has had a difficult time in recent years, affected by the consequences of the pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and internal turmoil (from indigenous riots to criminal wars).

Ecuador earned $927 million in 2021 from roses alone. Ecuador’s flower industry recorded sales of $827 million in 2020, a smaller decline than expected from 2019, when sales were $880 million.

With hundreds of companies growing 450 varieties of roses, Ecuador is the world’s third largest flower exporter after the Netherlands and Colombia.

But as of July 2022, the government estimated the cost of the riots across Ecuador at about $1 billion—about two-thirds of it in the private sector, including the flower industry.

Russia was the second largest flower ordering country for Ecuador in 2021, behind the United States. Since the start of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia’s share of the Ecuadorian flower market has fallen from 20 percent to 10 percent, according to industry representatives.

“We are talking about a letter sent by the Russian sanitary authorities with a request that the Ecuadorian authorities not issue export certificates to four specific companies. There are actually more than four of them; this is not all exports. In my opinion, this is a hint of possible consequences – Viktor Kheifets, director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, comments to MK. – For Ecuador, the export of bananas is one of the leading sources of income, including for the family of President Daniel Noboa. This is their family business. As for carnations, this is also quite an important moment for Ecuador. Not like bananas, but in principle the republic earns a lot from it.

Another thing is that specifically the export of bananas to Russia has already suffered, starting in 2022, due to disruptions in supply chains. It was carried out mainly through Holland (as were flowers, by the way), and then the products were delivered via the Baltic Sea to St. Petersburg, so bananas are cheaper here than in Moscow. And from St. Petersburg they spread further across the country.

In my opinion, we are not talking about a complete ban. Rather, it is an exchange of signals: you are selling equipment that cannot be sold, but you too may be under attack. I repeat, this is not only a question of Ecuador, but also a question of the personal business of President Noboa’s family. I don’t think that this will lead to a change in the plans of the Ecuadorian authorities to sell military equipment purchased at one time in the Soviet Union, but this may be a signal: do not go beyond a certain line, it may end badly. For now, this is just sounding the soil.

– So, on the one hand, this is an economic step, but also a political signal?

“I think this has political overtones.” Six months ago I would have said that it was not there, but I don’t believe in such coincidences. We know that in the past there were examples of the suspension of supplies of Moldovan alcoholic beverages and Georgian products after political disagreements… In this case, it was no coincidence that flies were found in the fruit. They may indeed be there, but their discovery surprisingly coincided with the moment when controversy arose. Not a total ban yet, but an offer to bargain.

– From a political point of view, can this affect relations between countries and how?

– Relations will definitely not change for the better. The task is to keep them at least at the current level. This, after all, is fraught not so much with a deterioration in relations with Ecuador, but as it will be a signal for other Latin American countries. Russia is trying to avoid a situation in which certain Latin American states will end up on the list of unfriendly ones. Unlike European countries, not a single Latin American country made it there. If this suddenly starts, the process may become uncontrollable. I think the Russian authorities understand this very well and are trying to find a formula for coexistence.