Sergei Shoigu and the Americans took part in the forum in Beijing

The tenth Xiangshan Security Forum in Beijing, which takes place October 29–31, attracted delegations from more than 90 countries. He was visited by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who on the sidelines of the event held negotiations with the Deputy Chairman of the Central Military Council (CMC) of the People’s Republic of China (the main military body of the country, which fully controls the management of the army) Zhang Yuxia. The Central Military Commission is headed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The post of China’s defense minister has remained vacant since October 24, when the authorities announced the resignation of General Li Shangfu.

In his speech, Zhang promised to deepen strategic cooperation and coordination with Russia. Regarding the United States, his rhetoric contained contradictory elements. On the one hand, he expressed a desire to develop military ties “on the basis of mutual respect and peaceful coexistence.” On the other hand, veiled criticism was also addressed to the Americans: the Chinese colonel general said that some countries “continue to create problems around the world,” “deliberately create turbulence,” and also “interfere in the internal affairs of other countries and provoke color revolutions.” . In addition, Zhang confirmed that the Taiwan issue is one of the key issues for China. “Whoever tries to separate Taiwan from China in any form, the Chinese military will never allow that to happen,” he said.

Shoigu, in turn, said from the podium that the West could provoke a direct military clash between nuclear powers by supporting Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. “The Western line of steady escalation of the conflict with Russia carries the threat of a direct military clash between nuclear powers, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences,” he expressed his opinion. According to Shoigu, the West has set a course for inflicting strategic defeat on Russia in a “hybrid war”, where “Ukraine was cynically chosen as a battering ram.”

Describing the political situation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), Shoigu expressed the opinion that there the American-centric bloc deterrence network acts as the vanguard of NATO. Among these blocs, he singled out the QUAD quartet (India, USA, Australia and Japan), AUKUS (Britain, USA and Australia) and the Asia-Pacific four (Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea). Involving some ASEAN countries in their activities, according to Shoigu, damages the unity of this association. At the same time, Russia is committed to continuing military and military-technical cooperation with interested states in the region, including the supply and maintenance of military equipment, personnel training, joint exercises, etc.

It is known that 22 countries are represented in Beijing at the level of defense ministers, and another 14 at the level of chiefs of general staff. This time the main theme of the forum, which was first held in 2006, is stated as “Common Security, Sustainable Peace.” Participants will hold discussions on global and regional security, artificial intelligence and strategic stability. At the same time, the forum can also become a platform for resuming dialogue between representatives of the PRC and the United States after a long pause since August 2022, when former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan. Now the American delegation is headed by Zanti Karras, head of the China department in the secretariat of the deputy head of the Pentagon. Former Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai expressed the view that the decision on Xi’s visit to the upcoming APEC summit in San Francisco largely depends on open communication between senior officials before the event.

The Xiangshan Forum is one of the largest among those taking place in China, says Alexey Maslov, director of ISAA MSU, and in the current conditions it has acquired a completely different meaning than it had before. This is due both to the situation around Taiwan and to the noticeable increase in military rhetoric by the Chinese authorities. In addition, if previously only military issues were discussed at the forum, now there is talk on the sidelines about military-technical cooperation, Maslov emphasizes. At the same time, the expert believes that “Xiangshan” is becoming more anti-American, as evidenced by Zhang’s rhetoric.

Russia’s presence at the event at the ministerial level is also a very symbolic story, since it would be extremely disadvantageous for it to worsen the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Maslov believes. At the same time, the fact that the American military delegation finally reached China for the first time since 2019 indicates the desire of the two sides to resume military negotiations, including on the situation around Taiwan and the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Resuming the exchange of information is very important to prevent real clashes between China and the United States, says Maslov. If the parties manage to reduce tension around Taiwan, this will shift the entire layer of US-Chinese relations, he concludes.