Russia is faced with the problem of a massive outflow of migrants: there may not be enough labor force

And home is better

Bakhrom is 43 years old, born in Tajikistan and has extensive experience in construction. We met him back in 2020, when a pandemic began around the world, countries urgently closed air traffic, people were left without work. Russia was no exception – tens of thousands of visitors were literally locked in the country. Then, various charitable foundations came to help people who were in a difficult situation: they brought food and essentials to those in need.

“I can not take it anymore. As soon as the borders are opened, I will immediately ask my relatives to send me money and go home. My foot will no longer be here, ”Bakhrom said then and cried, the man did not eat anything for four days.

And he really kept his promise. But at the beginning of 2022, he thought, what the hell is not joking, and returned back: “I got a job at a construction site. They promised good money – 70 thousand. Then the SVO began, the course jumped in the moment and the money was significantly reduced. I don’t need much myself, but my wife and children are at home and my mother is sick. She doesn’t walk at all, we put everything off for her operation.”

Last spring, two of his comrades returned to their homeland, and Bakhrom himself remained, however, not for long. “Prices in Moscow have risen, my room rent was 15 thousand, and now it is 23 thousand. Food has become more expensive. I hardly ate meat, only enough for a chicken, and even then not every day. It became scary to go out into the street, then one would be detained, then the second – and all Tajiks. To be honest, I’m tired. Came home last week.”

Bakhrom’s case is not the only one. Many labor migrants do plan to leave Russia. “The trend began with the weakening of the national currency and intensifies as the ruble becomes unstable,” Bakhrom Ismailov, chairman of the Uzbek diaspora in Moscow, tells MK.

According to him, more promising markets have now appeared for labor migrants. “An alternative for Central Asian citizens is Kazakhstan, Turkey, partly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, as well as the countries of Eastern and Western Europe, which are now developing programs to attract employees from Central Asian countries to agricultural work. If it’s Holland, then it’s flower greenhouses, and if it’s the UK, vegetable greenhouses.” According to his forecasts, the outflow can be up to 30%.

Moving is not the solution for everyone. For citizens of Kyrgyzstan, for example, life in Russia is somewhat easier. Firstly, the country is located in the EAEU, and this saves residents from many bureaucratic delays. Secondly, during their stay in the country, many have long received Russian citizenship and started families.

Up to 10% of citizens of the republic can return to their homeland, predicts political scientist Denis Berdakov, editor of the Berdakov Online telegram channel. “Labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan are people who have been living in the ruble zone for a long time and receive money in rubles, not soms. Second, wages are rising. Loaders are already offered a hundred thousand, because there are not enough workers after the start of the NWO. The demand for physical strength has increased tremendously.”

Money isn’t everything

The weak ruble is not the only reason forcing migrants to leave. “Old legislation is being imposed that does not meet the current volume of migration and issues of interaction with government agencies,” Ismailov says to MK.

“The migration legislation was adopted back in 2002 and is in great need of reform. There is no information in the languages ​​of origin of migrants. Understand that many visitors are people from rural areas with a certain level of socio-cultural development. And when, for example, the authorities responsible for migration policy send them to specialized websites where everything is written in Russian legal language, this practically does not give any effect.”

Another difficulty arises from the unwillingness of landlords and employers to formalize migrants. As a result, foreigners cannot register, for which they bear personal responsibility up to and including deportation.

And in the Kaluga region, for example, participation in the NWO suddenly became a condition for obtaining Russian citizenship, which also stimulates the outflow of foreigners. According to human rights activist Tatyana Kotlyar. “For men, it doesn’t matter on what basis they apply for citizenship: as participants in a state program, or as native speakers of the Russian language, or because their wife and children are Russian citizens, they stopped accepting documents for citizenship in the Kaluga region.”

According to her, some even agree to go to the front, but the military enlistment office turns people back: some have three children, others have obvious and noticeable health problems. But you still can’t get a passport.

However, the risk of mobilization has already led to an exodus of people with dual citizenship. According to Denis Berdakov, only 5% of the Kyrgyz who previously lived in Russia have returned to Kyrgyzstan. “These people consider themselves Kyrgyz, but they have Russian citizenship. They leave deliberately, regardless of the fact that in Russia they started families, took out mortgages and received good subsidies.”

warm place

During the pandemic, when there was an outflow of guest workers, construction literally stopped in Russia. Many areas were in crisis. “Migrants are involved in all areas, they are an integral part of the production of goods and services. If this is a restaurant, then migrants work there as cooks, they work as couriers, if we talk about production, then these are line staff, for example, in a warehouse. And if agriculture, then this is work in the fields. Imagine what will happen if these people leave. The whole process will stop.”

This was previously understood in Europe, Japan, South Korea and the UK. According to Berdakov, after the pandemic, these countries opened additional programs to attract foreigners to the country.

“Quotas are constantly increasing. But not all specialists are needed there. If this is a welder of a good category, then there he can get 3-4 thousand dollars. But in Russia they will receive 250 thousand at any plant. And working as a courier, it is quite possible to earn 100 thousand. That is, on the one hand, it is good that an alternative is being created and there is where to go. But on the other hand, if a person does not have a specialty, then it will be much more difficult for him to break through and earn money.

“The absence of a large number of vacancies in neighboring republics also speaks in favor of Russia, and the situation may worsen over time,” Ismailov notes. According to him, climate problems lead to serious economic consequences, namely the desertification of the territories of Central Asia. If we talk about Uzbekistan, then, according to him, up to 50% of the population is employed in the agricultural sector. Moreover, as the country’s population grows, unemployment will increase. At the same time, Russia is a large territory that needs to be developed, which means there will be work.

This is also evidenced by the statistics of the FSB: in the first quarter of this year alone, 1.3 million foreigners entered Russia to work. Yes, people leave, but others come to take their place.

Whether Russia remains attractive to migrants depends on whether the country can shift from cultural and linguistic influence to creating professional networks for those who are vitally interested in integration, Berdakov said. We are talking about those who are ready to open a business, create international families, specialists of enterprises.

According to him, this will largely determine how much the financial flows of China, the Arab League, Iran, Turkey, and the EU will collide in the countries of the region in the coming years.