Russia has receded – Newspaper Kommersant No. 1 (7446) of 01/09/2023

The incidence of coronavirus in Russia during the New Year holidays decreased significantly: over the past week, 40% fewer new cases of infection were detected than a week earlier. According to experts, the reason is both in long holidays, when people are less likely to seek help from doctors, and in the changed nature of the virus, which now increasingly proceeds as a mild SARS. At the same time, Kommersant’s interlocutors, cautiously pointing to a sharp increase in the incidence in China, call on the epidemiological services of the Russian Federation “to prevent an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the country.” Other doctors reassure: the situation in China does not threaten the Russians, since “they are experiencing what we had in February last year.”

On January 7, more than 3.1 thousand new cases of COVID-19 were detected in Russia, reported operational headquarters to combat the spread of infection. Thus, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Moscow increased by 974 against 1052 the previous day. In St. Petersburg, 345 infected people were detected over the past day compared to 313 the day before. The number of hospitalizations in the country per day amounted to 476 people and decreased by 31.5% compared to the previous same period.

The incidence of coronavirus in Russia has decreased by 40% compared to last week. This comes from calculations TASSbased on data from the federal operational headquarters for the fight against infection.

So, from January 2 to January 8, the headquarters reported 23,435 cases of infection, which was the minimum since mid-summer last year. A week earlier, 39,255 cases were registered at the headquarters.

The number of hospitalizations also fell sharply: 4118 cases were taken to hospitals this week against 6225 last week (a decline of 33.9%). Naturally, the number of cases of recovery also decreased. Over the past seven days, according to the headquarters, 32,474 people have recovered, which is 34.6% less than in the previous similar period.

Mortality due to COVID-19 in Russia is declining more slowly than incidence. From January 2 to January 8, the headquarters registered 318 deaths against 379 in the previous seven days (a decrease of 16.1%). At the same time, the number of deaths was the lowest since the beginning of August last year.

According to the VGARus National Coronavirus Mutation Database, Russia is still dominated by the omicron strain of coronavirus. Over the past weeks, the share of its subspecies BA.2 has varied from 1.9% to 23.9%, BA.5 – from 66.7% to 96.5%. However, Alexander Gintsburg, director of the N.F. Gamaleya Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, noted that “dozens of different strains of coronavirus” are currently circulating in the Russian Federation. They, according to Mr. Gunzburg, are very different from the original version of the “omicron”, as they arose as a result of the genetic exchange of different variants of the virus: “Therefore, calling them “omicron” is not entirely correct, this is a genetically complete exchange, in fact, “children” of two strains” .

In the meantime, a new “mutant” has appeared in the world.

The World Health Organization has assessed that the XBB.1.5 subspecies of omicron strain, or “kraken”, identified in late 2022 in New York City, is the most contagious subvariant of the coronavirus detected so far during the pandemic.

At the same time, according to the findings of WHO, there are no signs that it causes particularly severe forms of the disease. The Kraken has been confirmed in 28 countries so far. In the Russian Federation, according to Rospotrebnadzor, it has not yet been recorded.

Tatyana Kogut, an infectious disease specialist at the Doctis telemedicine service, notes that the decrease in the incidence reflects the wavelike process in any acute respiratory viral infections, this also applies to the new coronavirus infection and influenza: after the rise, which usually lasts 5-6 weeks, comes regular decline. In addition, according to her, during the holidays, people are less likely to seek medical help, many leave the city, and if the disease is mild, there is no need to see a doctor. “The situation is different from what it was one and a half to two years ago, now the clinical forms really resemble seasonal SARS, which is typical for the variants of the Omicron strain that are now circulating. This factor also affects the statistics,” says Ms. Kohut. The decline in the number of people who have recovered, in her opinion, is also logical: fewer people go to the doctor, go to hospitals, fewer people are discharged, that is, statistically, the number of people who have recovered is decreasing relative to the number of those who have recovered in the past period.

It is impossible not to take into account also the quarantine measures that have been introduced in many regions, adds a neurologist, co-chairman of the All-Russian Union of Patients Yan Vlasov. However, the sharp increase in the number of cases of coronavirus and the death rate in China, he notes, “cannot but cause serious concern.”

Note that since the beginning of December, a quarter of a billion people in China have fallen ill with COVID-19, which is about 18% of the country’s population.

This was reported with reference to a closed meeting of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Bloomberg. “Against this background, the logic of increasing the number of flights from China accepted in the EU countries is incomprehensible. We hope that our epidemiological services, taking into account the changing situation in the world, will take the necessary actions to prevent an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the country,” Mr. Vlasov comments.

However, Tatyana Kogut believes that the situation in China will hardly affect the spread of infection in the Russian Federation, since now “they are experiencing what we had in February last year”: “The Omicron strain has appeared, the population of Russia has already suffered the disease these new variants of the coronavirus, and it reached China later, as there were more stringent measures in place.” According to her, the population of China is now also “epidemic with highly contagious strains,” and therefore, it is most likely not necessary to be afraid of the emergence of variants that will give more severe forms of the disease. “These concerns are expressed because the Chinese population is large and the likelihood of mutations at such a density is higher, but the evolution of the virus is on the path of weakening pathogenic properties and pandemic potential. Yes, this is due to an increase in contagiousness, which also, in general, ensures the emergence of herd immunity, ”concludes Ms. Kohut.

Natalya Kostarnova