Rebels in Niger accuse France of plotting military intervention

The military in Niger, who seized power in the republic as a result of a coup on July 26, accused France of preparing a military operation to free ousted President Mohamed Bazum. This was announced on July 31 by the official representative of the National Council for the Salvation of the Motherland (CNSP), created by the rebels, Colonel Amadou Abdraman. To Paris with such a request allegedly addressed and. O. Niger Prime Minister Hassoumi Massoudu. A similar proposal, according to CNSP, was made by the commander of the Niger National Guard, Colonel Giray.

The day before, French President Emmanuel Macron officially threatened Niamey with an “immediate response” in case of attacks on the French Republic and its interests in Niger. The Élysée Palace issued a statement after an anti-French rally in front of the French embassy in the capital of Niger: the protesters tried to break into the diplomatic mission, tore off the sign “French Embassy” and replaced it with the flags of Russia and Niger.

On the same day, Niger suspended the export of uranium and gold to France. The country is the seventh largest producer of uranium in the world and provides up to 17% of the raw materials used by the French for electricity generation. Niger is also an important ally of the EU in curbing illegal migration and Islamist groups. Boko Haram, Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (banned in Russia) operate in West Africa. To combat them, the largest French air base in the region (about 1,500 troops), units of Germany, Italy and the United States are deployed in Niamey. The number of the American contingent is 1000 people.

On July 30, at an emergency summit of the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS, which includes 15 states of the region) in the capital of neighboring Nigeria, Abuja, the leaders of its member countries threatened to use military force if the rebels did not restore constitutional order and release the deposed president within a week. Members of the organization imposed sanctions against Niger: they closed land and air borders, froze the country’s assets in a regional bank and stopped energy operations. Suspended the provision of financial assistance to Niger authorities of the United States, France and the EU. In total, this African republic annually receives about $2 billion of foreign financial assistance. On the same day, on the sidelines of the ECOWAS summit, Chadian President Mahamt Idriss Deby, who himself came to power through a coup in 2021, discussed the situation in Niger with his Nigerian counterpart Bola Tinubu. And in the capital of Niger, Niamey, he also met with the leader of the rebels, General Abdurahman Tchiani, to “explore all possible ways to find a peaceful way out of the crisis.”

The last time ECOWAS used collective force in the Gambia was in 2017, when President Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election. As a result, Jammeh resigned shortly before the introduction of troops.

The military of Niger announced the overthrow of Bazum on 27 July. On July 31, the commander of the presidential guard, Tchiani, said that the military deposed the president “due to deteriorating security, worsening economic and social problems.” France and other Western states condemned the coup. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the change of power in Niger “an anti-constitutional undertaking.” At the same time, the founder of the Wagner PMC operating in neighboring Mali, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called the incident “good news and the result of the long overdue liberation of the republic from the colonialists,” offering the rebels in Niger the help of their fighters.

Niger was the only state in the Sahel region where France maintained a strong position against the backdrop of the withdrawal of its troops from Mali in 2022 and the difficult situation in neighboring Chad after the death of President Izhris Deby in 2021, says researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov. “The state is at the center of the shadow trans-Saharan trade, including arms and drug trafficking,” the expert noted. The loss of Niger as a state also means the strengthening of terrorist Islamist groups and the deterioration of security in West Africa. “In itself, the coming to power of the military cannot but disturb the states of the region. The speed of ECOWAS’s decision is striking, apparently, this is due to the fact that it acts with the support of France. Paris looks at the situation in Niger more broadly, trying to play the “Russian threat” card in the context of the potential danger of squeezing the French out of their traditional sphere of influence, the expert continues. ECOWAS interacts with Paris in the economy, security, the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking and financial crime, Lukyanov lists: “Therefore, the French could use diplomatic channels to make the organization take an uncompromising position.”

According to Andrey Maslov, director of the Center for African Studies at the Higher School of Economics, by restoring civil power in Niger, the ECOWAS states are trying to preserve the integrity of the organization itself. “In Mali, Burkina Faso, the military has already come to power, and their membership in the economic community has been suspended. At this rate, there will be nothing left of ECOWAS,” says Maslov. “The presence of French and American troops in Niger gives some confidence to ECOWAS members.” The key role in the success of the ECOWAS military intervention in Niger, Maslov believes, will depend on the position of Nigeria and Chad, the largest states in the region. “The Niger Armed Forces will certainly resist the ECOWAS forces in the event of an intervention. And even with its success, it is not clear who will restore order in the country. They will probably try to restore the overthrown president, but this scenario is more likely to destabilize the situation in the republic,” the expert concluded.