Putin and Xi Jinping to discuss Ukraine first at SCO summit
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The main intrigue of the meeting in Samarkand
“An extra-tense two days in beautiful Samarkand” and an “over-enough number of meetings” are how the Kremlin describes Vladimir Putin’s trip to the SCO summit on September 15-16. The President is scheduled to hold talks with 10 foreign leaders, of which his aide Yury Ushakov especially singles out the heads of China, India, Turkey and Iran. There hasn’t been such a tense agenda since the start of the pandemic, let alone Xi Jinping leaving China for the first time in 1,000 days. And although the Chinese Foreign Ministry has so far refused to confirm the talks, the Kremlin claims that everything has been agreed: a meeting between Putin and Xi will take place on September 15, and Ukraine will be discussed among other topics.
For the first time in three years, the SCO summit will be held in person, and the leaders of as many as 15 countries will come to it – this is only 5 less than the G20, and twice as many members of the G7. In addition to the permanent members (India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan), the heads of states with observer status (Iran, Belarus and Mongolia), as well as those who are only eyeing the SCO (Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkmenistan). The Kremlin, which helped the Uzbek authorities with the organization of the summit, considers this result a major diplomatic victory and pins high hopes on the meeting. “The SCO offers a real alternative to Western-centric structures,” said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign aide. According to him, the non-bloc status of the organization and orientation towards multipolarity are attractive in the context of large-scale geopolitical changes.
The summit will adopt a memorandum on Iran’s obligations, after fulfilling which it will receive the status of a permanent member of the SCO next year, and the process of accepting Belarus as a permanent member will also begin. Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will join the ranks of observer states. And 5 more countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Myanmar and Maldives – will become candidates for joining. (Earlier, Syria also appeared on this list, but, apparently, it has not yet been possible to push through its candidacy.) Ushakov singles out Erdogan’s arrival in Samarkand separately. “Turkey is a member of NATO, but it understands that the SCO is an important platform where key decisions are made on regional and international issues,” he notes.
Obviously, such a broad representation confirms the thesis that “it is impossible to isolate Russia,” and Vladimir Putin, despite the special operation, remains not only a handshake, but also an interlocutor in demand for many foreign politicians. According to Ushakov, on the sidelines of the summit, the Russian leader has scheduled “super-enough” meetings that will go on non-stop. On September 15, he will meet with the heads of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan, China, Mongolia and Uzbekistan. And on September 16 – Azerbaijan, Turkey and India.
The “most anticipated” and “most important” of the Kremlin’s spokespersons is the contact with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who, for the sake of the SCO, breaks the quarantine that lasted about 1,000 days for the first time and leaves China. A spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on September 13 declined to comment on information about the meeting between Putin and Xi in Samarkand, but Ushakov claims that everything is agreed. The leaders will discuss not only the bilateral agenda, but also international topics. In particular, they will continue the discussion that began in Vladivostok, where the GDP met with the head of the Chinese parliament, about the situation around Ukraine and Taiwan. “China takes a balanced approach to the Ukrainian crisis and declares that it understands the reasons that forced Russia to launch a special military operation,” Ushakov emphasizes. Another important topic, he said, will be trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China. Under the conditions of Western sanctions, mutual trade is reaching a new record. Beijing, as you know, willingly buys up Russian oil, which Western countries refuse, and is also ready to increase gas supplies. (The new gas pipeline project will obviously be discussed when Putin and Xi are joined by the President of Mongolia.) Russia is looking to China for deeper engagement, in particular on critical technologies and Western-sanctioned equipment. But before the meeting of the leaders, it was not possible to agree on such support, and the chances of turning the tide are still slim. At least after meeting with Xi’s envoy in Vladivostok, Putin once again called the Chinese “difficult negotiators.”
Two more meetings – with Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev – have gained additional relevance due to the aggravation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. However, the main topic at the talks with the Turkish President will be the grain deal. Moscow is waiting for Erdogan to explain how and when that part of the agreements relating to the export of Russian grain and fertilizers will begin to be implemented. Formally, these two positions have been removed from Western sanctions, but deliveries are not being made due to problems with freight, payment, etc. In addition, Putin was going to discuss with his Turkish counterpart the option of closing the “European route” for the export of Ukrainian food from the Black Sea ports.
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Putin and Xi will discuss Ukraine
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