President Erdogan’s health deteriorated sharply two weeks before elections

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on April 26, on the advice of doctors, canceled participation in all public events for an indefinite period. Vice President Fuat Oktay will speak instead, the 69-year-old head of state said in his Telegram without giving details. On May 3, Erdogan is scheduled to perform in the cities of Rize and Trabzon in the west of the country, the cancellation of which has not yet been reported by the presidential press service at the time of delivery of the issue. According to unconfirmed information from the Turkish edition AVAZTÜRK, the President of Turkey could have had a myocardial infarction. A sharp deterioration in the health of the head of state occurred almost two weeks before the presidential elections in Turkey. Polls show neither Erdogan nor his key Republican People’s Party (CHP) challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 74, so far has a decisive advantage.

Erdogan, who held a Muslim fast during the holy month of Ramadan (ended on April 21, forbids eating and drinking until sunset), felt unwell on April 25. This happened while answering questions from journalists from Turkish TV channels Kanal 7 and Ulker live. The broadcast was interrupted for 20 minutes, and after it was resumed, the president said that he “had a severe cold in his stomach.” “We work hard. I have a serious cold. We thought that if we cancel the program, we might be misunderstood,” Erdogan said. Later, a representative of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalin, assured on Twitter that the health of the Turkish leader was in order. Kılıçdaroğlu and other leaders of the opposition bloc on Twitter wished their rival in the elections a recovery. In 2006, Erdogan, while holding the post of prime minister, fainted in public during the Ramadan fast. In 2011, he disappeared from the public field for four months after undergoing bowel surgery. In October 2021, Foreign Policy magazine published an article about the Turkish leader’s alleged memory, breathing and heart problems. In November of the same year, messages about Erdogan’s cancer with the hashtag #ölmüş (“dead”) were circulated on the Turkish Twitter segment. The country’s authorities then conducted a judicial investigation into the fact of “disinformation”. In February 2022, the Turkish president contracted a mild form of the coronavirus.

Erdogan’s supporters often express doubts about Kılıçdaroglu’s ability to successfully lead the state, arguing this with his advanced age (he is now 74 years old), but it turned out that the president may have health problems, Turkish political scientist Hakan Aksai told Vedomosti. “Although Kılıçdaroğlu is older than his counterpart, he has a vigorous policy and does not seem to be experiencing health problems. And, judging by his statements, the politician does not expect to stay in power for a long time: after [обещанных оппозицией в случае победы] constitutional reforms, he promises early elections,” the political scientist added.

The traditional Islamist rhetoric of the Turkish leader, according to Aksai, has less and less response from voters. “On April 19, Kilichdaroglu publicly admitted for the first time that he belonged to the Alawite sect. His confessional affiliation was one of the objects of speculation by his opponents. They argued that conservative Sunnis would not vote for a non-Sunni,” the expert said. “Our identity is our essence. We must state this with dignity. We will no longer talk about identities, our differences, but we will talk about our common dreams,” Kılıçdaroğlu commented on his belonging to the Alawites on his Twitter page. The video has received 35 million views.

According to the average think tank poll results calculated on April 24 by the Turkish division of Euronews, Erdogan can count on 44% of the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu – 47.5%. The United Opposition candidate’s rating is higher in eight of the 10 polls used. Only according to Gezici data Erdogan wins in the first round with 53.4%.

The opposition has so far managed to get a small lead thanks to the unification of forces, the involvement of pro-Kurdish parties and skillful statements by Kılıçdaroğlu, said ISAA associate professor Pavel Shlykov. But Erdogan’s supporters can still win back a few percent, using updated data on lower inflation and demonstrating the latest in the Turkish military-industrial complex and automotive industry, as well as measures to overcome the consequences of the earthquake, the expert believes.

“The president’s illness can play in his favor. The Turkish voter is sentimental, this situation can cause empathy for the leader as a selfless leader,” says Shlykov. However, in the event of a serious illness or death of the head of state, his place will be taken by Vice-President Oktay, who will have to call new elections and start all over again all the preparations for them.