Potential for growth of protests after parliamentary elections in Serbia assessed

Early parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on December 17. After processing more than 90% of the ballots, it became clear that the “Serbia must not stop” coalition of the leader of the republic, Aleksandar Vucic, won a landslide victory with a result of 47%. The opposition bloc gained almost 23%, which left them extremely dissatisfied. Leaders of opponents of the current government in Serbia began to declare facts of falsification of the results and promised to “use all available democratic means” to challenge the election results.

The difference in perception of the results of the parliamentary elections in Serbia is visible to the naked eye. President Aleksandar Vučić commented on the victory of his “Serbia must not stop” list: “This is an absolute victory, which makes me extremely happy. We know what we have achieved in the previous period and how difficult the period lies ahead.”

Prime Minister Ana Brnabic addressed the citizens with these words: “I want to thank our people and citizens from the bottom of my heart for realizing the seriousness of this moment, because they voted for the results, for the vision, for the goal.”

And only the opposition remained dissatisfied. Clearly expecting the wrong result, the opposition coalition “Serbia Against Violence” began to attack Vucic’s coalition and accuse it of falsifying the results. For example, the leading election observation mission CRTA reported that one of its vehicles was attacked in the northern Serbian town of Ojaci. The car windows were completely broken. According to CRTA, the attack occurred after observers reported an attempted “carousel voting.”

“This is the most brutal attack our election observers have ever encountered. However, this was not the only problem our observers encountered: others were either threatened with death or denied access to polling stations,” CRTA program director Rasha Nedelkov told Politico.

Some “independent journalists” also talked about the arrival of entire busloads of voters (they were allegedly brought from other countries), as well as about “phantom voters.” God knows where the evidence is.

At a party rally after the end of the elections on Sunday, Ana Brnabic summed up the day, holding printouts of “incriminating materials” in her hands. The Prime Minister called them lies and “stupidity of unprecedented proportions.”

The whole point is that the opposition had something to cling to in order to play on the feelings of voters. In addition to the parliamentary elections, municipal elections were also held on December 17. The opposition traditionally retained the capital, Belgrade, but in these elections their position was shaken. This, by the way, was admitted by opposition leader Miroslav Aleksic: “What is really true is that at the moment there is no doubt that the Serbian Progressive Party won in Belgrade. At the moment, the list of “Serbia against violence” and the list of the Serbian Progressive Party as a whole are approximately equal.”

Yes, the difference in Belgrade turned out to be really small (only 4%), which gave the opposition a reason to voice their claims. But the question largely lies in whether the opposition will be able to provide convincing and real evidence of some kind of falsification.

In general, if you look at elections in different countries where the opposition is becoming more active, the diagram of the “path to contestation” is just like a carbon copy. How does it end? Most often, nothing special. But the history of modern Serbia remembers sad pages when protest sentiments persisted for a very long period. This, for example, happened at the end of 2018. Anti-government demonstrations lasted more than a year and were considered one of the longest in Europe.

Is something like this possible now? On the one hand, the reasons are slightly different: in 2018, protests broke out after an attack on opposition politician Borko Stefanovic. On the other hand, both then and now are all reasons to prick (and more painfully) the current president.

MK talked about the prospects for such a scenario with Alexander Pivovarenko, a research fellow at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Faculty of World Economics and Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics:

– I believe that the likelihood of protests has become somewhat greater than in recent years. At the national level, the ruling forces have confirmed their positions, although their results are lower than in recent years. But this will be enough for a relative advantage in parliament.

The situation is somewhat more serious in Belgrade, where the difference is about 4% in favor of the ruling forces, which means an unsustainable advantage. Control of the capital is a key political circumstance. It is typical that opposition leaders concentrate their statements on the capital, without admitting their defeat. They are supported by the opposition media, emphasizing the facts of violations. So the battle over the interpretation of these elections is not yet over.

In contrast to the elections of the last 4-5 years, criticism of the political leadership of Serbia is increasingly heard in European capitals.

However, the ruling forces have also proven their legitimacy. It should be noted that the policy of Alexander Vucic and his bloc was, rather, successful. This was expressed in the fact that economic growth based on real production was achieved and infrastructure was being modernized. Serbia managed not to join the sanctions against Russia and, in general, the country can afford to pursue a multi-vector policy, unlike its neighbors. This is certainly the political success of Aleksandar Vucic. The ruling forces relied on these achievements during the election campaign, and as a result they received significant support, primarily in the provinces.