Poland’s double game in Ukraine: Warsaw showed sharp teeth to Kyiv

Poland has proposed to the European Union to introduce additional economic sanctions against Ukraine – news that looks like a fake, but it is in no way a fake. RIA-Novosti reported with reference to the authoritative radio station from Krakow RMF FM: “The Polish authorities proposed to ban the import of not only grain, but also other products from Ukraine … Poland wants to include soft fruits, eggs, poultry, sugar and honey”. Such is the “solidarity” in the joint fight against what both Warsaw and Kiev call “repelling Russian aggression.”

Solidarity is solidarity, and the interests of their own farmers, who do not like their Ukrainian competitors at all, are more important for the Warsaw authorities, especially in a situation where only a few months remain before the parliamentary elections in Poland.

For Ukraine, this state of affairs is not just insulting, but insanely humiliating. But she will – albeit, perhaps, not silently – swallow it. Firstly, because it simply has no other choice: it is not for Russia to redirect its agricultural exports now! And secondly, because such a hierarchy established by Poland: you and I, Kyiv, are equal, but I, Warsaw, are much more equal! – fully corresponds to both the historical traditions and the mentality of the Kyiv political elite. And it is this fact, and not at all the unfortunate fate of Ukrainian honey, against the backdrop of SVO, that deserves deep reflection.

It is generally accepted that the root cause of the current Ukrainian conflict is the desire of official Kyiv for its complete independence and independence.

Nonsense. Nothing could be further from the truth. I will illustrate this idea on the example of a country that is a neighbor for Russia, Ukraine, and Poland – Belarus.

Moscow and Minsk are operating today in a very close connection. But even in a situation where he seems to have practically no trumps left, Alexander Lukashenko continues to be an independent player. To put it quite rudely and clearly, then the Old Man is not under the Kremlin, but next to the Kremlin. Lukashenka is organically incapable of submitting to someone, dissolving in someone. He has no need to have someone over him. He is his own boss – a “state farm chairman” the size of a country.

But the Kyiv political elite has a need to have a boss and a “good master” over them. This played the most tragic role in the modern history of the country.

Until August 1991, Moscow acted as a “good (or not always kind) gentleman” for Kyiv. But in the course of the turbulent political events of that month, this “master” self-destructed, renounced all claims to “lordship”, left his wards (not only Ukrainian ones) to the mercy of fate.

How does one behave who suddenly turned into a free and independent player and wants to retain this status? He maneuvers desperately and with the help of such maneuvers creates a albeit complex, but stable balance of interests.

A couple of examples of such maneuvers from the current news agenda. South Korean President Yoon Sok-yeol on the possibility of supplying weapons to Kiev in an interview with Reuters: “If a situation arises that the international community cannot put up with, for example, in the case of large-scale attacks on civilians … or serious violations of the laws of war, then it will be difficult for us insist only on humanitarian or financial assistance.” As a result, the noise, din and loud ugly scandal – ugly, but fully consistent with the goals of the South Korean president.

Another message from the newsfeed: Yoon Seok Yeol will be making a state visit to the United States from April 24-29. It is customary to come to visit with “goodies” – especially if you need something from the hosts. And the president of South Korea needs a lot of things from his American negotiating partners.

In the United States, as you know, now they are carried away by protectionism and the protection of their market from foreign competitors. Several very important sectors of the South Korean economy may now fall under the rink of such “protection”, including the local auto industry, which has already suffered – it has lost the Russian market, which is very important for it. Here is the official Seoul and maneuvers. The President loudly declares in an interview about his plans to plant weapons in Ukraine. At the same time, information is brought to the attention of Moscow through all channels that these plans are hypothetical.

Americans spent as suckers? Not really. It is actually quite difficult to say who is a sucker here and who is not a sucker. Yes, South Korea does not supply weapons to Ukraine. But it is actively supplying weapons to its strategic ally and partner, the United States. And what happens next with this weapon is hard to say. Or, having turned into a “purely American” one, it ends up in the same Ukraine. Or maybe purely American weapons actually end up in Ukraine, while “purely Korean” weapons are used to compensate for the filling of arsenals in the United States. And this is not cynicism. This is international politics as it is.

Another example of the same policy. Read on the Kremlin website how enthusiastically the leaders of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia talk about their friendly feelings for Russia at meetings with the President of the Russian Federation. At the same time, inspection missions from the United States to close “sanction holes” for deliveries from these republics to Russia in these kingdom-states are received with no less enthusiasm. And go and figure out in which case the delight is more sincere!

The great American director Stanley Kubrick once said: “Big states always behave like gangsters, and small ones always behave like ladies of easy virtue” (a stronger word was used in the original quote). I disagree with this statement, strongly disagree! The same Kubrick owns another profound observation: “The most terrifying fact about the universe is not that it is hostile, but that it is indifferent.” In other words, if you want to live, know how to spin. The “universe” or someone else in this “universe” will not do it for you.

Modern Ukraine could also continue to “spin” and – following the example of South Korea and the countries of Central Asia – not turn itself into an arena for showdowns between great powers. But instead of maintaining a balance of interests, Kiev chose to completely destroy this balance: to make itself an appendage of NATO. Result: The Kremlin decided that it had no choice but to take action. And the “good Polish gentleman” in fact turned out to be not so kind and disinterested. And you can’t rewind anything.