Oil and gas budget revenues again exceeded the monthly baseline level

Oil and gas budget revenues in September exceeded the monthly baseline for the third time this year. Receipts increased both monthly and year-on-year. This was facilitated by a noticeable increase in the cost of oil and the continued weakening of the ruble. Exceeding the “base” led to the emergence of additional income, which, however, due to the suspension of the budget rule, will not be withdrawn again to the foreign exchange market for the accumulation of petroyuan. In the remaining three months, the Ministry of Finance expects the trend to continue and expects additional income for the entire year – in the amount of 864 billion rubles.

According to information published on Wednesday, October 4, by the Ministry of Finance data, in September, oil and gas budget revenues amounted to 740 billion rubles. with a “base” of 671 billion rubles. Let us recall that the basic level is 8 trillion rubles, broken down by month, the minimum required for the budget in 2023 to cover expenses from oil and gas (next year, instead of this “cut-off amount”, the “cut-off price” approximately corresponding to it is returned – $60 per barrel). September revenues are 15% higher than August revenues; by September 2022 they grew by 7.5%. Based on the results of all nine months of oil and gas revenues, 5.6 trillion rubles were collected, and this is 34.5% less than for the same period in 2022 – the gap from last year’s schedule is gradually decreasing.

September growth was ensured by revenues from the main oil and gas tax, the mineral extraction tax, which increased to 1.087 trillion rubles. from August 875 billion rubles.

The main reasons are the increase in the cost of Urals in August (oil taxes are calculated from the price and exchange rate in the previous month) to $74 from July $64.4 per barrel, as well as the weakening of the ruble to an average monthly value of 95.3 rubles/$ from 90.4 rubles. /$ accordingly.

Let us explain that total oil and gas revenues are less than mineral extraction tax collections, because the total amount is reduced by refund payments to oil workers from the budget: expenses for subsidies to oil refiners in September increased to 139 billion from 114 billion rubles. in August, payments to fuel damper companies increased to 299 billion from 186 billion rubles.

As the Ministry of Finance expects additional oil and gas revenues to emerge in October, it today announced the purchase of foreign currency and gold for reserves. Let us remind you that if there is a shortfall in the “base”, the Ministry of Finance must sell currency, and if it is exceeded, it must buy it on the market. According to the department, 398.7 billion rubles will be allocated for such operations from October 6 to November 7. (18.1 billion rubles daily). However, the foreign exchange market will not see these transactions again; they will take place between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Let us remind you that the budget rule in this part to curb the weakening of the ruble was suspended from August 10 until the end of the year (see “Kommersant” dated August 10), so the Central Bank does not mirror these transactions.

As follows from the materials for the draft budget for 2024–2026 submitted to the State Duma, this year the Ministry of Finance expects to collect 8.864 trillion rubles. oil and gas revenues – that is, despite the problems of the first half of the year, still exceed the base 8 trillion rubles, receiving additional income. This means that 3.2 trillion rubles are expected to be received in the remaining three months. Against the backdrop of the continuing rise in oil prices, this forecast looks realistic – in September, a barrel of Urals has already risen in price to $83.1. Compared to August, the price increased by another $9.1 and again (note, without consequences for the Russian Federation) exceeded the ceiling of $60.

Vadim Visloguzov