Yuan and gold will be added to reserves – Kommersant FM
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The Ministry of Finance is returning to yuan purchases. Last time it led to the abolition of the fiscal rule. The department reported that it expects additional oil and gas revenues of 500 billion rubles in October. higher than forecast. This allows the Ministry of Finance to replenish reserves with Chinese national currency and gold. Shopping will begin on October 6 and continue until early November. The authorities plan to allocate 18 billion rubles daily for these purposes. The national currency exchange rate did not react to this in any way, and the dollar continues to trade around 99 rubles.
Why? And is there a new threat awaiting the foreign exchange market? PSB chief analyst Denis Popov explained that the Ministry of Finance’s purchases now differ from those that it planned to make in August:
“The Ministry of Finance’s purchase of foreign currency means that oil and gas revenues have increased against the background of rising oil prices and the weakening of the ruble, and the budget has created conditions for resuming the replenishment of reserves within the framework of the fiscal rule. But since mid-August, the Central Bank has stopped mirroring these operations on the foreign exchange market, and the replenishment of reserves now occurs without entering it. In simple terms: the Ministry of Finance will buy currency from the Central Bank. This situation should last until the end of 2023, so for the ruble exchange rate this is not a significant factor, neutral.
In my understanding, the ruble is now in the initial phase of stabilization. For now, we see some residual pressure processes associated with changes in short-term factors, for example, the end of the tax period. But, in general, we expect around 95-96 rubles by the end of the year. per dollar, and for next year we maintain the forecast of fluctuations in a wide range from 90 rubles. up to 100 rub. for a dollar.”
Last time, when the dollar approached the 100 ruble mark, the authorities intervened in the situation. The fiscal rule was suspended, the Central Bank unscheduled revised the key rate, and exporters were asked to sell more currency on the market, or so the media wrote.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank began to discuss currency control measures, said Anton Siluanov. The minister, however, said that the government and the regulator have still not been able to find a consensus. State intervention could become the main factor for the ruble, says Digital Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh:
“The latest cycle of ruble weakening is associated with one reason – the volume of payments for exports is already 42% in rubles, and for imports we pay in national currency only in 30% of cases. Therefore, the flow of foreign money into the country is limited. How to deal with this, what measures can be taken? The two most obvious. The first is the sale of currency. However, this will only have a short-term impact. And tightening of foreign exchange controls, but this is a double-edged sword: if tightened, exports may suffer, that is, it will be more difficult for counterparties to carry out transactions.
The most obvious seems to be the mandatory sale of proceeds, but in our country already about 90% is sold by exporters on the market, so this decision can be assessed as having a weak impact on the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. A weakening of the national currency by 10% results in inflation of approximately 1%. That is, with a new round of growth in the dollar exchange rate to 110 rubles. We can say that inflation will increase by another 1%.
If you look at the August data, when inflation was 5.2%, you can judge that there is still room for inflation to be within 8%. Therefore, we do not see such a pressing need. If any actions are taken, then we are talking about 110 rubles. for a dollar or more.”
The Kremlin also noted that they see no reason to worry about the rising dollar. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov called attention to the American currency a rudiment and advised Russians to get used to living in the ruble zone.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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