Moldova is being prepared for a “second front”: for the sake of the European Union, Sandu is ready to surrender the country

Enough spectacles, give bread

Moldova’s GDP last year amounted to 272 billion lei ($15.3 billion), which is 5.9% less than in the same period in 2021. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the fall in GDP was affected by a decrease in the level of agricultural production, a decline in construction, a decline in the processing industry, as well as production in the energy sector.

There were many reasons for the fall of the Moldovan economy, and one of them is the energy crisis. Last year, the purchase price of blue fuel for Moldovagaz reached $1,500.

Due to high tariffs, enterprises in the country began to close or suspend their activities in August last year. For example, the largest Moldovan manufacturer of building materials, the Macon brick factory, could not survive the crisis.

But the biggest disaster for the country was a record 30% inflation. Services to the population rose in price most of all over the year – by an average of 43.97%. This is followed by food products, prices for which increased by 31.8% and non-food products – 19.94%.

In February, the Cabinet assumed responsibility for inflation and gas shortages in the country, and resigned. But this did not help the situation.

“The main fighter against inflation was Dmitry Alaiba, who was responsible for the country’s economic policy and budget. He created a commission to fight inflation, and then became the Minister of Economy. Now no one continues this work, and it is not clear whether this commission exists at all, ”Dmitry Kiseev, a political scientist from Moldova, told MK.

Rising prices disperse anti-government rallies in the country. Participants chant: “Sandu’s regime – rising prices, poverty, devastation” and “Enough spectacles – give me bread!”

According to Kiseev, the leader of the Shor Party, Ilan Shor, tried to sell bread at cost in his chain of stores: “But the authorities regarded this action as bribing voters and banned this measure.”

The government itself not only does not take any measures, but also violates the law, our interlocutor emphasizes. For example, the country’s Constitution states that pensions should be indexed in proportion to inflation. However, this year the payments were indexed only by half, that is, by 14% instead of 30%.

“The only increase in pensions was when the PAS party came to power, but in fact this money was eaten up by inflation and gas and electricity tariffs. Now there is not much left of this pension. On the other hand, the salaries of ministers were raised from 26 to 50 thousand lei. Created new government agencies and gave them good bonuses. And people must somehow cope with this situation themselves,” says Kiseev.

These actions, according to him, have led to the fact that the ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party has almost completely lost its supporters: “Few people believe in the ruling party. Life is getting worse, and it feels pretty strong.”

There are two different Moldovas for residents

Indeed, the crisis of 2022 did not go unnoticed for the president and government of Moldova. According to various polls, no more than 30% of the population trusts Sandu, and about the same number trusts PAS. Of course, they occupy the first lines of the ratings, but still the majority of the population admits that they do not trust any politicians at all.

Maia Sandu is trying with all her might to rally society around herself and her government. On May 21, a rally in support of Europe was held in Chisinau, initiated by the president. And, according to the director of the Institute for Effective Policy Vitaly Andrievsky, the action really turned out to be grandiose.

“The PAS party is trying to consolidate society and get support for Moldova’s European choice,” he tells MK. – The rally gathered about 80 thousand people on the main square. This was very important for both the party and the president, as the action took place on the eve of the summit of the European Political Community, which began on June 1.”

However, simultaneously with the action for the European future, demonstrations were held in the country against the current government, which was organized by the Shor party. The participants demanded the resignation of the government.

However, rallies in the country have already become commonplace. Supporters of Shor and the Party of Socialists take to the streets almost every month. The reasons are different – they demand not to restrict the broadcasting of Russian channels, pay people bills for the winter consumption of electricity and gas, return the Moldovan language instead of Romanian, they simply come out and chant “Down with the dictatorship”, and also ask for the return of the St. George ribbons, which the authorities have banned. The Moldovan authorities blame the pro-Russian forces for trying to destabilize the situation in the country. The opposition, in response, accuses the current leadership of a dictatorship.

“Fears of reprisals are growing exponentially. The authorities have indicated that they will fight disinformation and propaganda at the legislative level. I think they can start blocking Telegram channels on social networks, shut down media outlets, and so on. That is, the authorities can seriously take up the electronic media and will do everything possible to suppress dissent in the country, ”political analyst Igor Tulyantsev tells MK.

The law on combating disinformation and propaganda was passed by the ruling party last year. In particular, the Code on Television and Radio Broadcasting included a clause prohibiting the broadcasting of programs from countries that have not ratified the convention on transboundary television, including Russia.

“This is a fairly discussed event. The opposition calls this law “the creation of the Ministry of Truth” and is critical of it. But his main task is to counter Russia’s hybrid attack on Moldova,” Vitaly Andrievsky believes.

According to him, the opposition has little chance of somehow influencing domestic politics: “Dodon returned to the post of head of the party, but he is not able to consolidate it. And on July 12, the Constitutional Court will consider the ban on the Shor party in the country.”

The leader of the party of the same name, Ilan Shor, left Moldova several years ago. At home, he was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for embezzling $1 billion.

No alternative candidate

According to an IData poll conducted in March, Dodon is supported by about 17%, while Shor is supported by about 9% of the population. However, Dodon is extremely popular in Transnistria, and Shor’s influence is strongly felt in Gagauzia. In the elections of the bashkan (head) of the Gagauz autonomy, two candidates from the Shor party went to the second round of elections at once.

“Victory was secured through extremely populist promises. For example, to build an airport in Gagauzia, to raise pensions and salaries with the money that Shor finds somewhere there, to reduce the cost of gas prices for residents by agreement with Russia, and almost build them an amusement park. In fact, Shor bought Gagauzia and the Gagauzians. One way or another, but he conquered another region. And this means that official Chisinau does not control the situation in the region,” says Andrievsky.

There are no prerequisites for the normalization of relations with Pridnestrovie either. Maia Sandu promises that by 2030 the country will become a member of the European Union together with Tiraspol. However, Transnistria does not need to join the EU at all. Moreover, if Moldova is still going to be accepted into the EU, then Tiraspol demands from the Europeans to recognize Pridnestrovie as an independent state.

“It is difficult to imagine how Sandu will negotiate with Tiraspol after she tries to restrict May 9, prohibits any opposition media, statements, politicians. How, against this background, she is going to integrate Pridnestrovie, I have little idea, ”Tuliantsev says to MK.

One of the main claims of the opposition to Sandu is that she did not try to become neutral in relations with Russia, the expert notes. That is, instead of taking care of their own citizens, the authorities get involved in geopolitical confrontations. “It’s easier for them now to ask for money in debt from the West and, as it were, to show their geopolitical loyalty, than to agree with the main gas supplier and deprive themselves of financial dependence on the EU,” the expert notes.

However, this loyalty has already earned Moldova the status of a candidate for the European Union, and on June 1, the country received about 50 European presidents at a summit dedicated to the events in Ukraine. Even if the country wanted to maintain relations with Russia, it would hardly have brought something to it, as, for example, to Georgia. Russia and Moldova do not have a common border for unhindered trade

In relations with Russia, Chisinau goes for broke and denounces agreements within the CIS. And again he is faced with the opposition, which is trying to use the agenda to consolidate supporters. “What will tens of thousands of households, hundreds of thousands of workers, who mostly sold their products on the markets of the CIS countries, do?” – Dodon addresses the voters.

“Nevertheless, there is no strong alternative to Sandu right now. Dodon is under a criminal case, he may get a term and then he will not be able to participate in the elections. Shor was expelled from parliament, ”notes political scientist Andrievsky.

However, according to him, it is difficult to predict the situation now. There is still more than a year before the elections, and everything can change. It is possible that a new pro-European candidate will appear in Moldova, but with broader views than Sandu. Then, most likely, Moldovans will vote for him.