Market vs Preferential: how banks are trying to solve the problem of high mortgage rates

There are still more than two weeks until the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, and experts already foresee that the key rate will remain at the same level. Now it is 16%, which increases the cost of housing loans and makes the imbalance between market and preferential mortgages huge. The solution to this situation partly lies with the banks: large credit institutions have entered the fight for low rates for borrowers. Experts call for a compromise to be found between commissions for developers and shifting the risks onto the shoulders of the population.

According to “Russian newspaper”, at the moment, large players in the banking sector have begun to charge commissions to developers selling housing on a preferential mortgage. According to their logic, preferential mortgages are unprofitable, which means that developers must compensate for losses. In turn, the “construction site” is fighting to ensure that its conditions do not change.

“My value judgment: there is an element of slyness on their (banks’) side in these calculations. I’ll just give an example of what banks include in their calculations. One bank includes in the calculation the growth of macro-surcharges from the new year (in terms of debt burden, PDN 80+, LTV, ratio of loan to collateral value), that is, in other words, the bank wants the Ministry of Finance and the state to compensate it for issuing high-risk loans . How do you like this in general?” the publication quotes the head of the Central Bank’s regulatory department, Alexander Danilov, as saying.

According to the head of the Department of Insurance and Social Economics of the Financial University under the Government of Russia, Alexander Tsyganov, both sides need to be listened to on this issue: banks and developers.

“If the former are regularly accused of taking advantage of preferential mortgages, the latter are discussed less often. Although in this case, both banks and developers are participants in the process, making a profit using the state program. In this case, banks, faced with deteriorating operating conditions, decided to share losses with other participants and not at the expense of consumers,” the expert comments, adding that it is necessary to seek a compromise based on the division of losses between all participants who previously received benefits and profits.

The Central Bank is also tightening the requirements for issuing loans based on the down payment and the maximum debt load. By introducing entry restrictions, the regulator expects an improvement in the loan portfolio. The bank includes commercial risk in the forecast of a prolonged crisis.

“The regulator itself does not provide the opportunity for more or less accurate forecasting due to the unpredictability of the level of the key rate. Every participant in the mortgage market now answers the question: “At whose expense is the holiday?” Very simply – not at mine,” he told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. chief expert of Rusipoteka Sergei Gordeiko.

Some experts believe that the Bank of Russia is ignoring how households can survive the period of high rates when citizens’ debt burden is growing. This issue is not even on the agenda, although it is of great importance for borrowers.

Economist Andrei Barhota believes that the specifics of the housing market made it possible to adapt to the new key rate and partially offset its growth. The annual pace of lending was expected to slow. However, the increase in the key rate accelerated the process: if as of July 1, 2023, the annual growth rate of the loan portfolio was 23%, then as of December 1, 2023 – 29%.

The second “side” effect is associated with an increase in the share of housing under construction in the volume of mortgage transactions. The primary market is considered by the Central Bank as the epicenter of risks in the housing sector. This is due to the rapid increase in the price of a square meter and the preservation of the preferential program. Even if the government subsidy program is dismantled, it will be replaced by programs from developers.

It turns out that an increase in the key rate does not cool the mortgage lending market, but only leads to its imbalance. And the situation with commissions for developers risks becoming the main event of the year in the mortgage market. Obviously, more fine-tuning is required to achieve stability.